Frost & Odinga: Pay very close attention
Wuu-wee…Odinga is a smooth talker. I almost swallowed some of his kool-aid until the end where he said he won the election “overwhelmingly”. Haiya, haiya…hold on a minute there, dear African brutha. Kibaki got 4 million votes! Raila also got 4 million votes. These two men were separated by a few thousand votes and the polls were right all along when they predicted a close election. Neither of these men was guaranteed an overwhelming victory.
Second point: Raila keeps saying he won in 6 of the 8 provinces while Kibaki only won in 2 provinces. So what? the requirement in Kenya is that you have to get 25% of the vote in 5 provinces; there is no requirement that you have to win any of those 5 provinces outright or even that you have to win a majority of those provinces. Furthermore, Kibaki got 30% of the vote in western, over 30% in Coast, 30% in the rift valley, 15% in Nyanza (from the Kisii’s) and he beat Raila in Nairobi. Kibaki did not have to win any of these provinces outright in order to win this election.
Third point: What Raila isn’t telling the western media is that Kenya’s election really hinges on population numbers (i.e. every vote counts) – it is not like an American election where if you win a state, you get all of it’s electoral votes. Let me explain this because it seems to confuse a lot of people. In America, each state carries a certain number of electoral votes. The number of electoral votes is based on the population of each state. So, the state of California, which has a high population, will get more electoral votes than the state of Vermont, which has a very small population. Example follows:
Now, in Kenya, it’s the exact opposite. Once you cross that 25% threshold, the individual votes STILL count and the winner is whoever has the most votes in total. Therefore, all Kibaki had to do was get his required 25% in the 5 provinces and with the huge GEMA vote solidly behind him, the individual numbers were on his side. It was not an impossiblity that Kibaki could indeed have won this.
Raila has been repeating this line over and over again and frankly, I’m just getting sick of hearing it, especially because it masks the truth (& anyone familiar with the election rules and the population numbers would know this).
Kikuyu 22% (which by the way is a figure that was routinely and purposefully brought down by Moi; I think the number is closer to 28%)
Meru & Embu 7%
Kisii’s 10% (with 50% voting for Kibaki or 5%)
Kibaki walked into this election with 34% of the voters already behind him and I haven’t even included the 30% he got from western! This myth by Raila that he was the overwhelming favorite is totally false. The reality is, the country is evenly split and we saw it in parliament with the vote for speaker (they only lost by what? 4 votes?)
Bwana wacha ufala. You fail to realise that Raila had solid Nyanza, Rift Valley which neutralized GEMA votes. If Kibaki was so confident of winning then he should have allowed the vote process to be transparent. You can fool some people some times but you cant fool all the people all the time
Plus ifit wasn’t for vote tampering in some provinces, Kibaki wouldn’t have got the mandatory 25% in 5 provinces. He was locked out in N. Eastern (rigged), Nyanza, Rift Valley and Western( rigged).
KE ,
U forgot to add that pre -eLECTION, rAILA was leading in 6 out of 8 provinces.
However, Post elections, it was a tie. Raila had Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley and Coast
while Kibaki had Central, Eastern, North Eastern and Nairobi.
Moreover, Kibaki got at least 15% in all provinces, while Raila merely got 5 and 2 % in Eastern and Central repsectively.
Just goes to show that despite Raila’s payukaring, Kibaki is by far the more popular president.
Do not be deceived by ODM’s whining and repeating of lies that they lost. This is when all those primary school proverbs make sense i.e. empty debes make the most noise
Raila’s tactic is if you tell a lie often enough, people will believe it as fact.
We need to be critical thinkers not just payukarers. Raila may be more outspoken than anyone in PNU lakini as we were told in primary school empty debes make the most noise. And to quote comment #1 ” You can fool some people some times but you cant fool all the people all the time”, Raila should take this advice to heart.
Luo Community Way Forward
Tue, 15 Jan 2008 12:33:44 -0800 (PST)
I have been soul searching which way forward as a Luo community. The just concluded election as a community we organized and supported Raila as we have always done. But I knew things won’t go well when Raila used the tribal card as his main campaign tool where he turned other tribes against Kikuyu in order to defeat Kibaki. I found that irresponsible because at any time it could bring bloodshed.
I am from Ugenya constituency and most constituents wanted Stephen Okoth because Orengo once elected stays in Nairobi never comes back. So we wanted somebody who will be with us as a community. The Raila machine rigged Orengo in and that was the end of the people’s choice. Raila did not talk about rigging then why is he speaking about it now. When Orengo went against Raila he was rigged out but when he supported Raila he was rigged in. So I have come to realize that Raila is not about justice or democracy or common man he is about power.
I think it is time as a Luo community we start supporting another family we have been supporting the Ondinga family for over 50 years but we have nothing to show for it.. Every government comes along they rub it the wrong way and we had to stay in the opposition all this time. When Kenyatta offered Ondinga the Vice Presidency he continued to attack the government and even went ahead and started his own party when he was just a heart beat away from the presidency and I think that was very stupid. Kenyatta appointed Moi and Moi was an example of what Odinga would have done, he remained royal to Kenyatta and he finally got his reward. After Moi became president he invited Odinga to join his government. Odinga started bragging that Moi could not lead without him. Moi heard it and dropped him like a hot potato.
When Raila said tosha to Kibaki all he needed was to continue to be royal to Kibaki and probably when Wamalwa passed away he would have been made a VP but just like his father he started attacking the government from inside and he was eventually kicked out.. Now Kibaki would not want to hear of him in the government because he is a headache.
What has been polarizing even among us as a community without knowing is that the Odinga family has been portraying a communist image, a man of the people or the people’s president but the family is as capitalistic as any one can get. The fact remain the family is one of the richest in Kenya through the gas business, entrepreneurship which they have failed to lead us into. I was surprised when Raila informed us that we can grow coffee in Nyanza. I asked myself after 40 years since every other community who could grow coffee has grown it is the time Raila is talking about it?
Fellow Wajaluo it is time to give another family a chance, the Odinga family might have charisma but they don’t have the wisdom to lead us as a community where we want to go. Look at Oburu he sleeps for 5 years and then get elected almost unopposed as if he owns Bondo constituency just because his name end with Ondinga. Now compare that with all the work Tuju did for Rarienda but because his name does not end with Ondinga he was thrown out or rigged out.
We have also to think again on how we conduct ourselves as a community, since independence the Kikuyus have change their royalty from Kenyatta, Matiba and then Kibaki. We are the only people who have been stuck with one family. If we have been held by a spell we need to get rid of it, we cannot keep backing the same family for a whole century. When Matiba was rigged by Moi in 1992 did the Kikuyu people riot and loot and burn Murang’a? No. In 1997 when Moi rigged Kibaki did the Kikuyu in Nyeri riot loot and burn businesses? No. We have to think again and abandon this type of leadership which radicalize the youth with nothing to offer. We are suffering now in Kisumu because most of the stores are either looted or burned now who is going to suffer the Kikuyu the Kisii or Luo? Jaluo. The Kisii too have done away with Nyachae they have changed their loyalty. The Kalenjin have changed their loyalty from Moi they have refused to stick with his sons so we need to wake up.
It is time to support a progressive leader who people can disagree with without being stoned who can lead Luo people in doing business, in doing farming and in wise politics. By wise politics I mean a person who knows when to oppose and when to cooperate. Opposing all the time is stupid and retrogressive.
Stephen Ochichi
ODM, through its well organised and funded election campaign have raised the benchmark for the 2013 elections, however the tactics and rhetoric language used leaves little to be desired. The results? We can all attest. In developed/mature democracies, politicians tend to go to the voters where they pitch there vision and ideals to the people who intern disseminate these promises (with the help of the media) and vote’s accordingly. In developing countries, the opposite happens. People tend to follow the politicians and hung on to each and every word they utter. They lack critique and independence of thought and heavily rely on politicians for directions. This mixture added with high levels of poverty and unemployment makes for a relatively easy people to wittingly manipulate and disillusion.
Tribal politics, which capitalize on the emotions of the “disgruntled” tribe are and will always be dangerous grounds to venture into until we learn to identify those who dare evoke such hatred amongst us. And as we all know, history is littered with such leaders who need not to be mentioned.
Peaceful demonstrations/mass action and boycotts are all perfectly legitimate, and help empower the otherwise powerless, but if the intensions are founded on hatred rather than to unite, exploit, rather than serving the people who voted, the outcome, as history has shown time and time again will dwarf what we have seen over the last couple of weeks and with far reaching consequences.
I am in no means suggesting we “forget and move on”, far from it, as I have said before, we have two types of politicians, the incapable and those capable of anything, take your pick. I’ll settle for the devile I know.
it occurs to me that the current government enjoys more support than the odm, given that it carries the combined votes of pnu and odm-kalonzo.
all vote counting and recounting and analysing probably wont be productive, given the level of distrust between parties.
Luos are more intelligent than Kikuyus. But Kikuyus especially their women are more hard working. We need both of them. As a matter of fact, more luos are employed in Kikuyu businesses than kikuyus are employed in luo businesses. There was very little killings between luos and kikuyus.
Ordinary Kikuyus and Luos want to be friends. But our top and old politicians are preventing us. Let the young luos and kikuyus come together and ignore the old politicians for the sake of the two tribes.