Gone With The Wind: Jobs, That Is…
I was reading an interesting commentary in some paper the other day where someone talked about the on-going layoff’s that are taking place around the world.
This person was basically looking at the layoff’s from a point of view I have yet to hear spoken about. He or she was saying that in America especially, the use of technology has become so widespread and it has produced such a high level of efficiency that companies no longer need all these workers.
In other words, they are too many people doing non-relevant things that can be done more efficiently by computers or machines and in the cases where a machine cannot do the work, they are now cheaper sources of labor around the world (most notably, India and China).
As I was reading this comment I thought about a time when I was in Mombasa at my friends father’s house. We were sitting on the veranda having breakfast and there was going to be a wedding the next morning right in the garden below.
In preparation for this wedding, the garden had to be “tidied” up and so my friends dad went to the hotel which was catering the dinner and asked them if he could get some of their gardeners to come over and cut the grass in the yard.
So, as my friend and I are sitting in the yard eating our breakfast, these gardeners show up and they start cutting the grass. However, they weren’t using machines. They were using those slashers: left, right; left, right; swoosh, swoosh.
As we were looking out at them, my friend and I were like…”why aren’t these guys using machines”? For people who lived in America, those slashers seemed so archaic, but of course, the answers we got back were… “why use machines when labor in Kenya is so cheap”? And that was right – Labor in Kenya is cheap, but using those slashers was just not efficient. If I recall, I think they were 7 men there and I believe it took them about 3 hours to finish cutting all the grass.
Now, with a machine, that grass would have been cut in 45 minutes max and it would have been done by exactly one person.
I brought up this issue of grass cutting in Mombasa because I was listening to a guy who just came from Kenya trying to tell me that the jua kali artisans were going to be able to compete with Chinese manufacturers and I thought to myself, is this guy crazy? Only someone who has not lived in the west for a very long would make such an absurd statement.
Yes, people are moving to China because of the cheap labor, but the chinese factories are also using lots of machinery. You can’t produce millions of goods like that without machines.
So, if I try to tie these two issues together (American efficiency and Kenya’s inability to use machinery) — one can then clearly see where this job market is heading.
First in America. If you’re in a job where you’re not selling or a job that does not require great technical skills, why should they keep paying you to sit in a cubicle and push paper? The only other reason they’d keep you is if you were dealing directly with customers, but if all you need to do that is a computer, an Indian can do it much more cheaply, so why pay an American?
Then of course, if you look at Kenya –and lets get back to the guy who said that kenya can compete with China when it comes to manufacturing: How the hell are they going to do that if they don’t start using machinery? they will never be able to do it and that means, that is not where the jobs in Kenya will come from. However, Kenya can compete with India when it comes to outsourcing (because {again}, all you need is a computer, a simple phone connection, a headset & fluent English speakers) and bam!…you’re ready to go. So, naturally, this is where the next opportunities are going to come from. Many of the customer service jobs in America have to be outsourced. I mean, why would a company pay an American $30,000 dollars a year to answer phones when a Kenyan can do it for $9,000 dollars a year with no benefits?
So, what do you think? if you’ve been laid off recently why do you think it happened? (and be honest. i.e. were you really adding any “value” to the companies bottom line or were you just pushing paper?)
So… ur part of the wabenzi… sitting on the verandah, sipping tea while casually pooh-poohing how the locals manage…
Slashers are inefficient but what to do?
Firms that tried to automate in the past were derided by the public and government with the usual racist jingoisms.
Examples: Tea firms wanted to use tea-picking machines (google it) and the government ‘banned’ the machines citing job losses. Since the firms were owned by ‘whites’… yes, the usual racist bullshit was thrown at them.
Today, Kenya is losing its market share to Rwanda, Malawi among others.
The Mombasa Port has been trying to automate but the unions (backed by the politicians) sabotage the process. The usual ‘coastals’ fearing loss of jobs coz they didn’t want to go to school & learn how to operate machinery.
I have tonnes of examples… In many cases manufacturers want to automate but are threatened with strikes…
I know many far-sighted Kenyan-Asians with manufacturing concerns that wanted to (substantially) automate but faced roadblocks from labor officials, COTU among other unions with BS about the loss of jobs, etc.
BTW, some of these firms can’t compete effectively anymore… and in some cases just closed up shop & guess what?… all the jobs were lost!
The only hope (ironically) for local manufacturers is an inefficient KPA that keeps imports delayed at the port for ages!
BTW… until a few years ago… machinery imports were heavily taxed… thus the government’s (misguided) policy was to encourage manual labour. This actually discouraged efficiency which led to bad practices which led to bloated workforces which led to ‘dying’ firms.
When the time came to get rid of the excess workers, the government insisted on ‘packages’… so screwing the manufacturers…
At the Nairobi Airport… KQ buys its own equipment whereas the KAA would rather hire thieving baggage (un)loaders… probably from muhohohoho’s village…
This is a very good post, though u sound uninformed in some areas.Well, I will tell about my losing a job( career ) experience…man! Well I was fierst hired inexperienced as a process manager..I thought it was a great job..u know..taking home a whooping $960 a week after taxes+benefits…those were.. clinton years.. then came bush!
Thank I was laid off and run back to school as fast as I could … and I can”t regretWell, this is the process..some guys in the warehouse fill-up all the material and dye/ink and color…the technicians at the machines make sure the product is as expected by reading the machine parameters..managing the robotic arms..where any repetative motions can be imitated by machine…(one arm=10men(5arms)x9times faster=more profit in a shorter time 
.Now my job was we were packing the right products with min waste..by updating the technicians , engineers and our CLIENT’s feedback….So I hire three assistants in my office..the max allowed to make sure we have all the parameters in check…for eg at point A the dimensions maybe out of spec, or its density etc. 
Machines are faster…so by the time I realise there are holes or cracks or its too dark or too much dye the system has send 10000s pieces for packaging.
So they hire these consultant to advise..And the solution is..they refer them to a sytem that can not only obtain all the parameters ie, wgt, denstity etc…but can sort out, shut the system and point out.. the problem in less than 22 seconds by sampling..1000s of xs more effecient.It turns out that they gonna save millions and within 4 mths my job is history together with my jnrs,and more in the production & engineering dpt…and they were next going to the warehouse.. who were not only overloading but sometimes..mismatching…..I will tell you , am glad I changed my career…Cos am still making a living inthese rough times
So don’t let those OH, PA , IN or MI politicians lie to you…those jobs aren’t coming back…that former employerl went overseas eventually. Thats why I doubt that Detroit is ever coming back
Coldtusker:
I was thinking about the class issue as I wrote this and I think the response of both me and my friend (to being uncomfortable with this whole issue) was to pose the question (“well….why can’t they use machines”?) — It would have made it easier on our souls, if they had been one guy there sitting in a “car” driving around the yard cutting the grass.
However, like I said, it was not my property and I was simply a guest. I did notice that it didn’t bother the people who hadn’t lived outside of the country. To them, it was just the way things are, but to us (who had been removed from it), it was somewhat jarring (mainly because the tools used seemed to be so archaic). I’m getting visions of Karl Marx here as I write this (the proletariat, the plutocracy, the peasants, the landowners….capitalism is a vampire).
Koffi:
I had a hard time following your first comment above. If you click on your name, you can go back and edit it and make it clearer for us to follow what it is you are trying to say.
However, I agree with you on Detroit: The government wants to bailout companies that are making cars that nobody wants to buy. It makes no sense.
In a broader sense, I don’t think any of these bailouts are going to work because I am know coming to believe that the global economy is going through a fundamental shift. Gone are the days when banks are going to be willing to pay freshly minted MBA’s $200K a year to “analyze” financial statements when someone in Bangalore can do it for $15K a year.
The way I’m seeing things, they are really only 3 possibilities to job “security”:
1)You either have to work with your hands and become a plumber or electrician;
2) You have to be highly skilled in a technical field, i.e. be able to write and design software that businesses rely on; or, have some other scientifically based skill (medicine, pharmacy, etc, etc) or…
3) You have to be a fanstatic salesperson who can bring in revenue for a company.
The amount of software I’m seeing, that is being used to replace paper pushers and that is also ensuring that employee’s don’t have to think or make any decisions at work, is astounding. You need one or maybe five people in a company to make the “big” decisions. Then, you need a few sales people to bring in the revenue and a few engineers to design and make the “stuff”, but after that, you need no one else.
Kenya is also about to hit oil
You have to start somewhere if you want to get anywhere.
My question is this:
How would the machines operate without electricity?
How would the goods be transported without good roads?
How will an illiterate populace innovate and operate the machines?
How will you enjoy the fruits of your labor without security?
How will the workers perform on empty stomachs?
If the issues posed by the above questions are sorted, then Kenya will be on the way to a reasonable level of development.
In other words, the government has to fix the following:
- Energy
- Infrastructure
- Education
- Security
- Food Security
Otherwise, we will just be engaging in discussions till kingdom come…….. Pointless discussions.
When are we ever going to see action?
Have we not had enough seminars, workshops, meetings, barazas, policy papers etc?
All the issues you have raised in your post are well known. Action is what is now needed.
This is why I wish there were more Michukis in the cabinet.
KE-I bit of a confused post (you probably need to read more than just Vanity magazine to get better handle on issues). Current lay-offs are occuring because Western demand for goods has contracted. Hence, everybody from your glorified manufacturers to bankers is being laid off to cope with lower revenues.
The fundamental shift you are talking about is one where companies outsource repetitive tasks to cheaper economies. Some functions/roles/tasks will never be outsourced because the cost of maintaining the same standards is onerous.
On Kenya, we’ll get there, but we do need a change of leadership and mind-set. You rarely see/read/hear a kenyan with an original implementable/effective solution to some of our common place problems.
Kei O-completely agree with you. We have in our parliament, 5 types:
1%- who does something-Michuki is the only one that I can think straight away. probably Mwaria.
1%-who articulate issues clearly but do nothing. RAO is prime example here.
1%-who sometimes do something- the two MKs
1%-who sometimes are articulate-Ruto and MK (martha that is)
1%-who do something and say something
95%-dung
Mainat:
I don’t know why you are confused by my post, but I think you missed one of the basic points that I was trying to make. So, I will explain it here again.
Yes, people are being laid off because consumers are spending less and demand for goods is falling. However, I am arguing that this is only part of the problem and that there is another issue occurring, which many aren’t talking about and it is this:
The jobs that are being eliminated now are not going to be replaced even if consumer demand returns. Why? because I am noticing (& you may have a contrary view) –that the use of technology is becoming so widespread and the software applications are becoming so good, that many of these jobs are going to literally be replaced by technology.
The other thing I am noticing is that these applications are increasingly becoming web based, which means, anyone in the world is going to be able to not only access them, but do the work required (virtually).
So, my point was, that they are still too many people in the vast middle whose job functions can be done virtually in cheaper places around the world and as companies are forced to downsize, they are going to increase their use of this kind of web-based technology in order to PERMANENTLY eliminate these jobs and keep costs down (for good).
The term “paper-pusher” has been used widely, but I think a more appropriate term today is “data-pullers” — too many people just pulling data from computers & analyzing it, which many people around the world can do for a fraction of the cost.
Kei O;
I don’t like theoretical discussions either and actually for me, this discussion is not theoretical. I’ve noticed the tremendous utility of this software in practical places. For example, I’m running a site (& it’s not this one) and I started using some analytics and I was amazed at the information it was giving me. It tells me:
- what time people are logging into the site
- what part of the world they are logging in from(breaking it down even by town!)
- what keyword search terms they are using to find the site (which essentially tells you how to run an advertising campaign)
-what goods are selling and which one’s are not…etc, etc.
So, if you are a business, all you need is someone to make the product, then you need someone to sell it, then you need the kazi ya mkono people to transport the goods and put them on the shelves, but after that, what else do you need?
Therefore, the question is: if you are not technically oriented and you are not in sales, what are you going to do?
Great post KE
KE-I’ve done outsourcing work, so I know better.
KE
But do you get my point about fixing the basics first?
Mainat:
Are you based in Kenya?
I think people think that with outsourcing all you have to do is jump on a computer and you’ll find a good programmer in 10 minutes. No. There’s different levels of skill and talent, but remember, you are not looking for this talent from just one country or one location. This talent is accessible to you from around the world and it’s upto you to find what works for you, but the choices are vast.
Kei O:
I get your point, but like you said, it’s theoretical. The real question here is how you (the individual) will function in this new economy if you don’t have the skills. So, it’s not about what the government will do or not do, it’s about what you will do.
KE-I don’t know why my location is relevant. When I said your post is confused this is what I meant. Are you talking about off-shoring, outsourcing, or automation (doing tasks using a compu)? These are completely different things and which vary with industry and role carried out. If you do anything that is repetitive, manual and requires no thinking, then in theory it can be replaced by any of the 3.
Beyond that, it’s very simplistic to say that this job or that will be outsourced or off-shore or even automated. Let me give you a very simple example, opening a bank account. Despite 10/15 years of e-commerce usage, you still need somebody to process your details before you can open a bank account. It’ll take 20-30 years before this simple function can even be offshored or outsourced never mind automated.
KE
What I am saying is that even if you are an individual with the requisite skills, they may just go to waste because the general environment is not conducive.
I will give you a very good personal example.
About 3 years ago, I floated the idea of setting up a call centre in Kenya with a leading player in the industry. He is actually based in Kenya. He advised me that it was not possible, even though there were thousands of Kenyans with the required skills. It was not possible because of the poor IT infrastructure i.e. broadband. He also specifically cited the volatile political situation.
Even though an individual may have skills, the government still has to provide a platform on which the individual can put his skills to use. That is the nature of organised society.
I guess this is why you find intelligent people doing seemingly simple tasks in caveman mode. It is because they do not have a choice.
How do you explain potatoes rotting in the farms of Nyandarua during the rainy season due to bad roads whilst children are dying of hunger in Wajir and Kitui?
My point is that the government has a role to play in all this. It is not just about the individual.
COLDTUSKER,
For once I agree with ur assessments.
Maina:
I’ am talking about all three because I think they are all tied in together.
Look, I am not saying that ALL jobs will be eliminated. What I am saying is that companies will now need FEWER people to do the jobs as they continue to use more and more technology in the workplace.
Kei O:
Yes, you need government, but if the government isn’t doing anything, should one just sit and wait for it to change?