Kagame’s Warning To Kenya…Oh Dear!
From Reuters:
“It starts with five deaths, then 10, then 50, shortly it grows to 100, then it goes to thousands … By the time you realise, it has a dimension that is wiping out life in villages and communities and is getting out of control and the whole political situation is in a mess.” (Bring in the army).
If there is one thing that has continually confused me about Kibaki’s regime, it has been his inability to control the security situation on the ground. I have had this feeling way before this election madness broke out.
They were clashes in Mt. Elgon and Kuresoi and I remember writing a post about that and wondering why he wasn’t sending in the army, especially when groups like the Sabaot Land Defense Force were using Ak-47′s against civilians. I said then, that he had an obligation to stop the violence even if it was Kalenjins killing Kalenjins.
I know I have said that the planners of the violence have to be punished, but in the meantime, you just cannot allow ordinary civilians to go around killing each other. Someone suggested to me that it was difficult to provide security in all parts of the country. Really? They are 50,000 soldiers in the Kenyan army. Why can’t you activate even 20,000 of them?
I know I had a post below on the army going into Nakuru and I said that if the commander decided to do it on his own, that too might be dangerous. However, that doesn’t mean that Kibaki shouldn’t take charge of the situation, sit down with the army chiefs and organize a clear chain of command on how they can curb the violence (you don’t want individual barracks commanders just making decisions on their own).
The only explanation I can come up with is that there are still too many Kalenjins in the army and if they are activated, they may not be able to be impartial.
Do you think this thing is getting worse or better or what? Why do you think the army is not being called up?
man KE,
This situation is really getting maddening. Honestly, what the hell is the gava doing ?
Can’t it stamp it’s authority and bring order ? I like Kagame’s realizm. It is not time for niceties and politeness and mediation attempts while people are dying and there is so much impunity!
Kibaki needs to realize that his adversary the ODM, is not willing to level the playing field. They want his job at any cost and he has to be willing to assert authority.
KE, I mean it’s been weeks since this madness begun and no one has been taken to court or arrested. by being arrested I don’t mean the 1000 or so small fish which Hussein Ali said had been arrested, NO, I mean the real big fish, a.k.a. warlord RUTO.
That’s the only time people will see the government is seriuos. for now they think it’s business as usual and that peple can get away with such crimes.
Kibaki needs to step up and address the nation everyday without reading those long boring ass speaches. He needs to show he has the strength to deal with it and not just say “we’re dealing with it”
KE belatedly you have realized what was obvious from the beginning….the government does not control the security apparatus, and it is largely intact from Moi’s regime.
they cannot control armed robbery, how the hell are they going to control a civillian uprising?
The situation is not serious now.But make no mistakes,it will be.ODM must embrace Kibaki and the reconciliation process must start.The revenge mission will surely break this country.Those calling for Ruto arrest are very ignorant.Its like calling for the death of Kibaki despite the Kikuyus worshiping him.
I do not think Kenya has reached the point of military intervention though I believe that time may soon come. While the Kenyan military may be professional each of the members have their tribal affiliations and this may be a factor were the military to be engaged. I think Kagame should not have made those comments at this juncture because that only serves to plant the seed that may lead Kenya to military rule. I’m sure many who experienced the 82 coup attempt, though brief, may not want to re-live those days. My humble opinion is that the military should be deployed only when there is no political solution fails. Remember Kenyan tribes are pretty much contained in their regions and that may be the reason that we don’t have a full blown war. Let us take advantage of that and look for a political solution before it is too late.
We should all believe that KENYA will pull through this.
Yeah it’s still too early to call for the military option but if the the talks or mediation fails then, this would be the next logical step for the military to take over temporarily while the current problems are ironed out. For now I highly believe Kenya will pull through this and will emerge as a more united nation.
The army was released because the Kyuks have had it with the govt and they were on the defence/revenge mode. Sources say that the gema mps met with security chiefs yesterday and threatened the govt(read Kibaki) about the army & helicopters being used now while they were in storage when kyuks were being murdered. The source said the Saitoti told them that the cops, ap’s and prison warders from RV have been paid millions to cause mayhem and sit and watch the kyuks being killed. Some ap’s were caught with over 100 grand in their pockets on Mon in burnt forest.Haji promised military intervention if any new flare-ups happen in the coming days. There is a shoot to kill order currently in place.
The good news is the kyuks are re-organizing their leadership and there is a strong underground movement that is demanding the likes of Kibaki, karume, uhuru, Njojo and many other land barons (geezers) to state their stand, work out the land issues or else…….! The supporters of the cleansing operations have gotten communiques stating their fate. We don’t expect mass retaliation (apart from the suspension of non-gema from gema land) but more of silent aggression. People are also asking for the ranches owned by white settlers to be BOUGHT by the govt and resettle the victims of RV killings. Another request is for RV to be divided into three parts, Kale RV, Maasai RV and Kyuk RV.
Kibaki is a weak president, a manager but not a leader. The non-gema folks ought to be thankful to him coze if kyuks had a leader like Ruto there would have been total war. We’re not seeking meaningless peace… but a resolution to the RO, Ruto and Nitimama (hundreds of kyuks have died in Narok) madness now that the world knows that both party’s rigged. People have to learn to resolve their issues in a civil way.
To qoute Blaise Pascal:
“Can anything be stupider than that a man has the right to kill me because he lives on the other side of a river and his ruler has a quarrel with mine, though I have not quarrelled with him?”
There cannot be a military solution to a political problem. There is no ammount of killing and maiming that will solve the issue at hand. Even with all of Americas military might Bush has been unable to bring lasting peace in Iraq. The violence in Kenya will only subside after a re-election and if the re-election is percieved to fair and just. Kibaki is not going to loose anything by agreeing to a new election niether will Raila gain anything. Dialogue is not going to change anything because non of them is will soften their positions because they have been held hostage by thier supporters. Numbers at the polls will only tell us who is the most popular man and we all know that numbers dont lie.
Sijui:
I acknowledged earlier and in several posts that Kibaki needed to overhaul the ethnic make-up of the army before he could start taking real action against the culprits. I believe they are now speeding up this process, but it will still take time. In the meantime, they have to use extra GSU guards to try and quell the violence.
Kibaki has not lost total control of the army, but he does need to reinforce the number of GSU men in the field.
Sijui
I dont know how Kibaki can quickly recruit, train, and deploy an army of GEMA in time to get control of the the country. If he fires the current people and replaces them you will have more experienced soldiers out there on ODM’s side who will easily aqcuire arms and they will be ready to fight because they are angry for loosing their jobs. At this point the only solution is peace it is the only winning solution. Insurgents who are made up of ordinary people give the US a hard time in a iraq what makes you think other tribes will be quiet because Kibaki is in control. Opression will always result in violence.
I like the T-Fig argument that the central kenya community is now looking beyond the wazees to provide leadership. I am personally very impressed with the way Martha karua has handled the situation. Martha will certainly be there for a long time.
I think its within the mandate of the military to guard the intergrity of the state and in this they are fulfilling a constitutional mandate. The police are compromised in most parts. In Solai for example the kale police were supervising the burning of kikuyu houses and preventing them from defending themselves.
All in all, we need central kenya leaders to take a more proactive role in resolving the revenge/reprisal mode. once we lose that moral ground that we had for over a month then all is lost.
And Kibaki, RO Ruto and others didnt swear the oath, u did do your job
I am very embarrassed to by a youth in kenya , this is because all this murder is being performed by the youth. The elder are inciting the young people to go and perform this.
If this continues we will not have any youth because they will all have died in war.
I pity the innocent kids who are falling victims of all this unacceptable situation especially in rift valley where there is cleansing of Kikuyus.
The only people who will make Kenyans realise how bad the situation is, are the children. Since we are too bitter with each other lets wait for our children to sober us up!!!….sarcastic
Why do you always think that the youth is being incited. Do not blame politicians for problems that we ourselves are causing, if I incite you to kill your neighbor does it mean that you should?
We have failed as neighbors, we have failed as villagers, we have failed as leaders and we have failed as Kenyans.
Since when I can remember, we have always had tribal clashes during elections and nobody raised a finger, it was perceived as normal.
The signs have been there we have been waiting for moses to come back from the dead to show them to us.
You guys are kidding. Its dead serious. Friends are getting passports stocking up on fuel and planning their exits…and these are guys in Nairobi. I visited a camp in Limuru yesterday for the first time and it was frightening…tires burning on the road, people stoning cars and police with guns riding in 4 wheel drives. This is limuru. Kikuyus have decided to kick out all non-kikuyus and oh by the way there are leaflets this is planned and financed! We need to understand the real culprits are the guys paying money to keep this in motion long enough for it to gain a momentum of its own.
We have been lulled into a flash sense of security in Nairobi…we need to act now. Although after reading some of the blogs I fear it may be too late already. We need to reach out to displaced persons and individually start forging and strengthening connections across ethnicity. We lack leadership we all know that so let’s stop the whining and lead! The “leaders” will eventually follow. We will have to do the hard work of re-building this country, let’s start now….I just moved back two years ago left my cushy job in the states and set up a business. I am not going to let these tyrants ruin my country. I will be feeding mothers and young children in Limuru tomorrow (kikuyus and non), anyone who would like to send donations or better yet come and help we will be at the Tigoni Police Station. Let’s start looking for ways to act and stop acting like our politicians…talk is getting cheaper by the second.
Ahhh Muthoni, a refreshing voice of reason.
Agree with T-dig and Muthoni. One of the lies told over and over again is that PNU is for status quo. I think in most PNU strongholds, only around 10% of MPs came back.
Of the many displaced esp in very unsafe places such as Eldoret and Naivasha, quick thinking about where and how they’ll be resettled is needed…