I wish to inform you that tomorrow you will starve
I am writing this post for myself, but you are free to chime in and read it if you like. I had to write this post for the safety of my own physical health after I just finished watching a video featuring Kalonzo Musyoka. He almost gave me an anneuyrism. He was pathetic.
I am now forced to pen this commentary because I have not seen this discussion in either the Nation or the Standard and I don’t know why.
I said on this blog (when the coalition government was first formed that it was going to chew up 80% of Kenya’s revenues. I also said that those expenses were eventually going to bankrupt the country. Many at the time argued that the coalition government was necessary for peace and so what if it cost a lot. We needed peace and if we had to pay for it, so be it. I disagreed with that argument then and I disagree today. The effects of this gluttonous government are now coming home to roost. Folks, their running out of money.
In order to understand what is really happening, I think you have to go back to this issue of productivity, link it to this issue of government spending and then you will see the coming financial disaster. Let me begin by looking at the size of Kenya’s GDP:
Kenya’s entire GDP is about $30 billion U.S. dollars with a population of about 37 million people (although nobody really knows what the population actually is).
The GDP of the smallest state in America (Rhode Island) – is about $48 billion U.S. dollars with a population of a little over one million people.
Now, how is it that a state like Rhode Island, with a population of only about one million people is able to have a higher GDP than an entire country with almost 40 million people?
Let me bolster my case even further: Harvard university, which is the richest university in the world, has an endowment worth about $37 billion U.S. dollars. In other words, one university’s endowment is larger than the entire GDP of a country of 40 million people.
The explanation for this glaring disparity in GDP wealth can be attributed to Kenya’s low productivity levels. We don’t make much and therefore we don’t have much. i.e. the one million people in Rhode Island are just more productive than the 40 million in Kenya. Their working harder, they’re more efficient and they produce more.
Let us move to step two of this discussion and talk about governments. By their very nature, government are the least productive entities of all. They make nothing and they produce nothing. The only way governments get their money is by taxing the “producers” and then redistributing the wealth from these producers into areas of the economy that will make those same producers even more productive. The reason you want these producers to make more is because you’ll be able to tax them more and if you are wise, keep using their tax money to create even more producers so you’ll never run out of money.
What is happening with this coalition government is that they are taxing the few producers who exist (mainly farmers since we don’t produce much of anything) and they are using these tax money to enrich themselves. To buy Mercede Benz’s, to renovate their mansions, to have commissions with full salaries, to go on expensive foreign trips, etc, etc…
None of the money that the government is collecting from taxpayers in Kenya is being used to help increase the modes of production. Eventually, if the number of producers never increases, but the governments expenses keep increasing, you will end up with a financial crisis because the money the government is spending is not being put back into the economy in any useful way. It is literally going down a rat hole, never to be seen again.
So, when Kalonzo Jesus loves me Musyoka, says that the government is going to alleviate hunger, he is either outright lying or he is an absolute fool. Where is he going to get the money to reduce hunger? If the government was serious about reducing hunger they would pump into the country’s real producers, i.e. farmers and tell them to increase their yields. However, because the ministers and MP’s are unwilling to curb their lavish lifestyles, the people who could really reduce hunger are not getting the money they need. It is instead being used to renovate Raila’s mansion.
The only solution to the country’s problems are for the government to drastically reduce the size of the cabinet, drastically cut back the MP’s salaries and pump that freed up money into the hands of people who actually produce.
The entire system in Kenya is totally screwed up because the bulk of the money is going into the hands of the least productive people (aka politicians). Unless this dynamic changes, the problems are going to keep getting worse and worse, until there if finally an explosion.
Ministers, MP’s and civil servants are not entrepreneurs. They cannot create wealth and you cannot alleviate poverty through only redistribution. The only way to reduce poverty is to drastically increase your productivity and this can only be done by the private sector. Actually, you don’t even have redistribution in Kenya because 80% of the money is going to 222 people and after they get their cut, the remaining 20% is sub-divided for between the 40 million.
It’s complete madness…
There are three ways to fix the imbalance: 1. Exponentially increase production
2. Cut government size as close to zero as possible
3. Optimal combination of the above.
I think most (if not all) the energy on Kenyan issues should be directed on economic production. In my view the reason for the inferior performance of Kenya Vs peers such as S. Korea is obsession with politics. Politics should be banned and people simply get to work. I want to hear more on large industrial production, nuke power plants, iron smelting, ship, rocket and aircraft manufacturing.
Muange:
As long as that 80% is being used to buy mercedes benz’s and to renovate mansions, there is no way in hell that production will increase exponentially.
Aircraft manufacturing? are you kidding? no country can develop until it has achieved food security. China and India achieved (general) food security in the 1970’s. After this, it took them another 20 yrs, but their economies finally started growing.
And India and China were much tougher cases because you had one billion people in each country. Do you know how hard it is to achieve food security for that many people? Kenya only has 40 million. Something is very wrong.
So, forget about nuclear power plants and aircraft manufacturing. These things will be pipe dreams until or unless Kenya achieves food security first.
You are spot on KE.
Someone wonders why there is great disparity between the Rich and Poor. The answer is simple. The existing opportunities to make real money are very limited and available to the lucky connected few who can bribe there way into getting government contracts/ tenders to supply stuff.
Since 70% are directly or indirectly employed by agriculture, majority of them are stuck in subsistence form of farming with little or no government support. Very few practice agriculture professional to a large scale to make substantial impact.
Somebody joked to me by the time a farmer plants maize seed and wait for it to mature and harvest to take to NCPB, how many LG TVs have passed through the production line in Korea, yet we expect to compete with them.
What we lack is simply visionary leadership able to harness the country’s enormous potential to it’s great destiny.
We have lot’s of educated hardworking people but many odds are against them. Once this obstacles are removed, great things will happen.
But I say, change is coming…
Enough is enough K.E. This too much. How is the country going to develop with No electric power and 2 months of water left.
Rwanda in 10 years is going to be a middle income country because of very lean government and a serious leader. Lets borrow from them.
I read somewhere that Singapore is the size of Molo Constituency yet they have a GDP of like $200 Billion.Something is wrong with our set up but I cant claim to know what it is.
Why hasn’t Kenya or much of sub-saharan Africa invested in solar energy?
The only answer I can come up with is that so much money is being stolen that there is not much left for any significant infrastructure development.
However, assuming you had a responsible government, why not solar? Maybe an engineer who is familiar with this kind of technology can explain it to us.
Also, explain how water storage works. Do those dams depend exclusively on rain? because that would be taking too many chances.
I’d really like to hear from engineers on this.
Maina:
Singapore is a very good example of a high productivity country. The size of Molo? that’s embarrasing.
Noni:
You speak the truth, but people don’t want to believe that. The low productivity numbers tells one that the private sector is not producing enough and the void is being filled by the government. So, too many people are trying to feed off this government gravy train and while it may make a few with connections rich, it will continuously leave the majority poor because no new wealth is being create.
I’ve compared it to in-breeding. Everyone is copulating with one entity (i.e. the government) and their offspring are then copulating with each other, eventually producing dangerous genetic mutations.
KE,
FYI Kenya’s entire GDP is not $30 Billion its actually double that- Right about $60 Billion.
So factually the Kenyan GDP is more than that of Rhode Island and the Havard University… But I get your point bro !!
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html
Didier:
The GDP at the official exchange rate is about $30 billion. Re-read your own link.
KE,
It depends which way you go with the PPP or the OER.
When comparing the strength of an economy to that of another most economists go with the PPP the OER is used mostly when comparing the currency values and it may not capture the domestic values of the output of an economy.
The endowment of Harvard University is not $37 its $ 25 Billion as at 2009 estimates.
Its misleading if you use Rhode Island GDP ppp and compare it with Kenya’s GDP OER. That is misinformation at its best. I agree with the point about production but you got to make fair comparison when you come down with the numbers.
Just when you want to give up hope, articles like this give you faith
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/
Is Kenya politically and socially dysfunctional right now. YES. However I always give kudos to our knack for innovation. As bad as things get, and right now they are PRETTY BAD……there is that central core of self sufficiency and hutzpah that always brings us back from the brink.
Sijui:
Which story in the article are you referring to?
Didier:
Okay, fair enough. We both get the main point I was trying to make, which is about productivity and it’s links to a nations economic stability.
Ke,
I have always asked myself this question over and over again…. I have gone through very many articles to just see if there is something that Kenyans don’t understand.
First we need to look at history to tell us, If Kenya has ever done it before. This is important for us to know if there is something that we actually cannot grasp about development or productivity.
If you go back to the Sixties. Kenyans used to be about work and work and work.(Once upon a time..). Very few people even had the luxury of visiting the city. People paid attention to what you always like to mention …. Production. Back in those days Kenyans believed in their ability to produce and true to this belief. Kenyans produced world class quality products despite the competition. Kenyans never used to just sit and watch tv or idle talking about what kind of car their mp’s capped. Kenyans never used to just have kids and leave them on their own to the streets. Kenyans used to be patriotic and they used to think on how they could make their country a better place. Not how the Country can make me a rich person.
People had faith in the Government Institutions e.g Coffee Board of Kenya, Pyre thrum Board of Kenya, Kenya Tea Development Authority.
The Integrity of these Institutions and those of the government Ministries back in those days were at an all time high as far as Kenyan history is concerned. Politicians never used to care about what car they drive, in fact if I’m not wrong the only Mercedes Benz in the Country was that of the President and foreign diplomats.
The politicians were not about their paychecks but how they could help the common mwanainchi. Kenyans never used to sift through appointments with a tribal marker like they do now. The government was small, lean and efficient enough to tackle the real issue. When Kenyans used to think of Freedom, they used to think …. Freedom through work and not freedom after work… I believe thats where the phrase Uhuru na Kazi came from.
All these Ism’s that exist now were not valued and Impunity was not exalted at the tea meeting around the villages.
All this Once was true….. Only If we could get back to these values can the country get back up and reclaim its lost dignity !!
Didier,
That is a good analysis…..very good indeed. From your argument, I take it that Patriotism can actually be a factor of production. I guess there’s some truth to it seeing as citizens of more developed economies tend to be very patriotic or at least they have some core values that they adhere to religiously.Make sense.
Didier:
Your analysis is not quite true. Kenyatta and many of his cronies were big time thieves, but I think the population was much smaller then and the world was a different place. Technology hadn’t taken over, globalization hadn’t taken over, the environment hadn’t been destroyed as much, the British systems left after colonialism were still in place, etc, etc.
So, forget this argument about patriotism. It means nothing and it’s not what production is about. You don’t produce because you are patriotic. You produce because you want to eat and you want to make money and as long as this is done through your own sweat and hard work, it is good.
The problem is one of culture and it afflicts the entire African continent – i.e. we do not have a culture of production and at this point, I don’t want to get into an analysis of why that is. It would take too long to figure out.
The main problem I’m seeing now in Kenya is that people in the government are not studying or reading.
I think the example of Chile would work for Kenya. You do what Pinochet did — you hire 10 people, experts who understand economics and you tell them to fix the country.
The same thing happened in India. It didn’t take that many people. It was mainly Manmohan Singh & P.Chidambaram who came in & implemented their policies.
Don’t leave it up to the ministers or even the PS’s, who I’m now convinced are just as clueless. I think you need people who have spent time in academia and who have had the luxury of study.
When I read about these countries that have managed to change, it’s become astounding to me that in most cases, it was less than 10 people who made the difference, but these people were uniquely smart, talented and well studied.
Well KE, Didier and Maina from what i have seen here in Britain where i am based the British created a set of values which they call “High Culture” to draw on their differences and bring their people from the agragarian economy to industrual economy. But KE is also right because the concept of Britain was created by a scholar and sorceror(thats what scientists were called back in the day) called John Dee whose student was non other that Francis Bacon who invented the scientific method as we know it today.
He is also one of the Key players who helped in creating the United States of America i.e which was a transfer of the British(Specifically) English ideals or what you guys were refering to as core values. If you look at the American flag it is just a metamorphosis of the British flag and is symbolic of the transfer of values.
Even Obama is half British because his mom is half English Half Irish.
Sir Francis Bacon also realised that people needed to get educated and they had anathema for Latin so they took English which was a mumbled up language and put a structure and format which could be easily learnt.
So in conclusion the “few” guys who will change Kenya and Africa will need to create a moral and cultural revolution. Maybe after that Africans will learn from the americans and conquer space(the next frontier) 50 years from now when they will be the majority just in the same way the Greeks and Europeans learnt technology(paper and math and astrology) from Egyptians who are todays Nubians and Nilotes and used that info to dominate mankind for the last 1000 years or so.
PS did you know Kiswahili, Kikuyu and other major languages are actually in a format or structure created by the British.
Its time we decide our own destiny.
In all the books I’ve read on politics & governance, the countries that have succeeded, have followed the path I outlined, which I learned about from reading their stories.
Basically, you have to hire well educated experts who have spent their whole lives studying only one subject. So, if you want to fix the economy, you hire a guy like Manmohan Singh in India. A man with a Ph.D in economics who had spent his whole career, prior to entering politics studying this one subject.
If you want to fix the environment, you hire a woman like Wangari Maathai. She has spent nearly 30 years studying environmental issues and she is an expert. You hire her and you give her all the power she needs, both legal and otherwise, to put her idea’s into action.
The problem I’m seeing in kenya is that the people making the decisions are not experts at anything. They have not spent 20 or 30 years, studying the issues they are tasked with resolving and without this study, you will continue to have haphazard policies being created by people who don’t know what they are doing.
I agree.
What can we as Kenyans do about this? I wish every of the 40 million Kenyans reads this post. We seem to be helpless yet we have the Capacity to change our beloved Country.
Well Kenyans need to get rid of their divisiveness in the first place. They have nothing to divided about. Ethnicity should be a strength not a weakness.
Embrace multiculturism and meritocracy that way we have the best people doing the best jobs.
Kibaki succeeded in laying an macroeconomic foundation in his first term. Thats why they are some projects taking off. However politics and cronysism still exists and that needs to be replaced with merit oriented policies.
The way i see it we need a Kagame from somewhere. That guy is transforming Rwanda in record time.
KE Kenyans are tired of their leadership, but I am sure if we had another election you will see the same faces coming back. Why? Sycophancy, ethnicity……
A bloated government, a people who seem as if they are enslaved by their leaders.. it is a mess.
We live in a now situation.. no forward planning or even the implementation of available plans.
We relish always dealing with one crisis after another.
What i see here is a people who are selfish, who are not able to see what their actions are doing to this country and its people. I wonder what kind of legacy we shall be leaving to our children.
As I think about this post further, I can see the solution, but given the country’s political reality, it will never happen.
The truth of the matter is, you don’t need ministers (at all). You need ministries and you need a professionally trained civil service, but not ministers.
I’m looking at Ruto running around the country talking about how he is going to feed people and the guy is crazy. It’s crazy talk. The guy is not an expert and he won’t be able to do anything.
Basically, the country is broke. Similar to where India was in 1991. However, India’s response was to bring in an expert on the economy (Manmohan) and then give him the power to fix the system with complete and total support from the government.
Kenya has to do this or else the system will eventually collapse. Kibaki needs to stop listening to thieves like Eddy Njoroge and James Mwangi. These guys are not experts on anything.
Kibaki & Raila need to find a guy like Manmohan and they need to give him absolute power to fix the fundamental problems of the economy & then keep him there for a good 10 – 15yrs.
But if this happened, many people would no longer be able to steal. So, it’s not going to happen and the system is going to collapse.
KE one can argue the system is collapsing in front of our very eyes. No water, No power, No food and No money recepy for disaster.
What would happen if the rains fail in October.
How can leave our fate to the weather?
I just dont understand!
John:
That’s an interesting question. People are expecting, nay…praying for rain, but if the tree’s aren’t there:
a) it may not rain (or)
b) even if it rains, it may not be enough rain.
The only short term solution I can see is sheer begging, especially for food aid. They need to stop fooling themselves into thinking that there is enough food and they need to go to the international community and beg. That way, at least people won’t die of hunger (in the short term).
I think the corruption has finally just bankrupted the country. You can’t keep stealing in an economy that is not growing significantly or in an economy with such low productivity levels, eventually the country will just go broke.
I’m thinking of Indonesia as I write this. Suharto’s family stole a lot of money in Indonesia for almost 30 years straight. However, the economy in Indonesia kept growing and growing so, yes, Suharto was stealing, but there was still a lot more money coming into the government coffers and they were able to use a lot of that money for development.
Now in Kenya, Moi was stealing for 24 years, but hardly anything was coming into the coffers because the economy was not growing. This was the beginning of our problems.
Then Kibaki comes in and the coffers are still empty, but things start improving. However, as the coffers begin to fill up again, Kibaki and his cronies ALSO start stealing and we’re back to square one! The money being stolen is MORE than the money that is coming in, but it gets worse because in Kenya, the population is growing & growing…so, more resources are being used by everyone, but the infrastructure and resources are not growing in relation to this growing population. Eventually, something is going to come to a head.
There’s nothing they can do in 3 years. It’s not enough time. At this point, just hope that in 2012, you get someone like a Manmohan Singh who will begin to fix the country, so that by 2030, things will have stabilized.
And if things stabilize by 2030..mission accomplished…DREAM 2030
Like a fairy tale
Another kenyan helping build a school, this time for gals in kibera
http://www.courant.com/news/ke.....?track=rss
mwalimu,
Does Kenya really need this form of Aid. I mean go down Kimathi, Kenyatta, Moi and Koinange streets everyday and you’ll quickly find out Kenyans spend millions of dollars on beer among other alcoholic drinks.
Why do we have to have a foreigner come and remind us of our responsibility. Is this not what we have been talking about over and over again. The country is full of people with boundless apathy. Now Prime Minister Raila is going to get all the credit for hosting such a project into his constituency. If he really cared about his constitutents why is he still burning all that gas on such fuel guzzling hummers, range rovers and lexus instead of channeling such funds to feed the orphans.
If he really cared. Does he even care ? …. I think Raila is more concerned about his own Status in the society and his luxury cars more than he cares about what is on a orphans plate.
And this is where I see the problem with the country lies, we sold out our souls long time ago. We value the wrong things and unless this changes nothing will ever change.
Disenchanted Didier ,
Odende is a boy from Kibera, probably with less qualifications than you , who is doing something about problems & young gals in his neighborhood….Where did you exepct him to get help from? Raila ? Kalonzo? .. STOP bitching about Ali baba and the fuel guzzlers .Its tiring.Its sickening. We already know raila has a Hummer and even that men drink beer in Koinange st. This dude whats to give some gals koinange st. cant give them..education!!!
He has managed OUT of kibera to the States. Thats also one less detonation from the time bomb kenya is sitting on…”energetic jobless youth” .Paraphrasing KE,” So Didier, want to make a difference in kenya?”
Mwalimu,
Do you have Odede’s email address. That’s an interesting story and I’d like find out more about the school and his work there.
KE:
You can reach him kennedy@hopetoshine.org or visit http://www.hopetoshine.org click on contact
Mwalimu:
Thanks. I will try and get in touch with him.
Aneurysm…sorry i couldn’t help it