10 responses

  1. kevin ogoro
    April 6, 2011

    the issue of arable land and water resources vis a vie energy cannot be looked at so simply. dubai for instance imports most if not all of its food and gets its water from desalination of sea water.
    hong kong (though not a country) singapore and japan barely have any land mass to speak of.
    am not trying to discredit the argument but its not exactly air tight. ict is important because other than the backbone and workforce it creates a global level playing field as opposed to agriculture, manufacturing and financials where developed countries have a head start.
    then there is the question of efficiency. why would you produce your own products when it is cheaper to import? this brings up the question of sovereignity and the real reason behind the argument. we just want to be able to do it. period

  2. Julius
    March 2, 2011


    You are right on this. As I have always insisted on my other posts, a country that cannot feed her people is a time bomb. How can you import both food and the fuel to cook it? Then what do you actually produce? Our Kenya is heading in the wrong direction. I always laugh when I hear loud mouthed senior goverment officers saying that ICT will be the key driver for the economy yet there is no food to feed the workers. We should focus on agriculture if we are to change our fortunes.

  3. Kenyan dude
    February 28, 2011

    Kenya has an area of 580,367 sq km. That’s 143,411,809 acres.

    There are 15 million adults. That’s 9.56 acres per adult.

    8% of the land is arable so there’s 3/4 acre of arable land per adult.

    Some of this 3/4 acre needs to be used for housing, hospitals, schools, roads, shops, offices, factories, etc.

    So, how much arable land per person is left for farming? Then the population will be 3.77 times what it is now in 50 years so we need to divide the 3/4 acre by 3.77.

    • kenyanentrepreneur
      February 28, 2011

      Kenyan dude:

      Thanks for that breakdown.

  4. kenyanentrepreneur
    February 19, 2011


    Do you mind sharing those facts? I don’t have them tabulated.

    Should you flee? No. That’s not what the article link I pasted said. It just said that you should be aware of the math and prepare your financial life and/or business life accordingly.

    Don’t ignore the math and cling onto hope.

  5. kip
    February 18, 2011

    You do write tons of sense when the subject is NOT my community.

    Thanks for this insights anyway.I got facts on Kenya tabulated as above,and believe me Egypt is better…So should i FLEE?

  6. kenyanentrepreneur
    February 17, 2011


    I’m not quite sure what you mean when you say that the institutionalist types are moving us a little ahead of the …etc, etc…

  7. Anonymous
    February 17, 2011

    the population vs resources debate has been with us for a long time. and there is no consensus. yet. fortunately, the institutionalist types are moving us a little ahead of the deterministic and (somewhat vulgar) mathematics.

  8. kenyanentrepreneur
    February 14, 2011


    Different people have different definitions of what a “failed” state is. For middle-class Kenyans maybe a failed state would have to be as bad a place as Somalia.

    For someone living in Kibera or Mathare, maybe Kenya would be a failed state because the system hasn’t worked for them.

    However, my point with this post is that you have to prepare yourself for what is coming based on the mathematical facts.

    So, whether I call it a failed state or whether you call it a functioning state, is almost not relevant in light of the mathematical facts that are present in terms of population growth, arable land, water resources, etc., etc.

    The point here (in reference to the post on Egypt) is that people should look at the math and that will tell them what is coming because the mathematical facts (if left unaddressed) will not go away.

  9. Anonymous
    February 14, 2011

    Please stop calling Kenya are failed state. Those of us who live here are still alive, breathing and moving forward

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