Is Kenya A Failed State?
I have a bunch of interview questions lined up with some Kenyan entrepreneurs so while I wait to receive their answers, I want to talk about this question of whether Kenya has become a failed state or not. There’s been a running discussion on this topic at Twitter, but I wanted to explore it further (here) since nobody has been able to come up with a definable answer. Is it or isn’t it?
When people think of failed states, they think of a country like Somalia — a place drenched in civil war, destruction and violence; A place where the instruments of government have long ceased to exist and where the citizens are left to fend for themselves in whatever way they know how. If we were to use this definition, then no, Kenya is not a failed state. The instruments of governmental bureaucracy still exist. For example, I was helping someone renew their passport last week. So, I called the Kenyan Mission in New York, sent the passport to them, they in turn sent it to Sharia house and when it was renewed, they expressed mailed it back to New York and the person was able to pick it up at the mission’s office. A person in Somalia would not be able to do this. They’d have to cross the border in to Kenya, get to the Daabab refugee camp and wait for the UN office to process the necessary paper work that would then allow them to travel as (what?) displaced refugee’s?
So, I would describe Kenya, not as a failed state, but rather, as a poorly managed state and poorly managed states exhibit the same problems. i.e. high levels of poverty, high levels of corruption, high levels of urban crime, poor infrastructure (with issues like electricity shortages, water shortages), etc, etc; in poorly managed states, the living conditions of the majority of the citizens are just not good.
Then, if we take this definition at face value, the next question becomes, how long can poorly managed states survive (peacefully) before they descend into anarcy or before they become failed states? And this is the question that nobody in Kenya seems to have an answer to, especially as 2012 approaches.
The only answers that I’ve heard that try to explain why Kenya will not explode like Somalia or like Rwanda are the following:
Of all the civil wars in Africa (& I’ve read books on just about all of them) — I cannot think of any country that mirrored Kenya’s, either in terms of it’s tribal make-up, economy or political structure. The closest country I could think of that mirrored Kenya was Zimbabwe, but in the case of Zimbabwe, the MDC, which is that country’s opposition party, has specifically refused to use violence to remove Mugabe.
In Kenya, the politicians incited the violence and in some cases, planned and funded it. When it then got out of control the world stepped in and told them to stop, but these guys are not like the MDC. They are willing to use people to fight on their behalf (just don’t ask them to do the actual fighting) — and this brings me to my last point on this issue: In all the civil wars I’ve read about, there was always a concrete rebel leader behind the fighting — i.e. one guy or a group of guys who were committed to fighting and dying for a cause they believe in. This dynamic does not exist in Kenya. None of the politicians are willing to fight and die for anything. They are too old, too fat, too greedy and too spoilt and this is why the country will not descend like Somalia or Rwanda. They are no rebels in Kenya’s parliament.
Your thoughts…..
KE,
Is Kenya a failed state ?…. Well first we have to know what the word failed state means. In other discussions I found out that different people people have different meaning for this phrase “failed state”.
Personally i think the phrase is an oxymoron and does not fully describe sub Saharan countries in their unique depths and features.
I would not call Kenya a fitting match for a failed state but in my own definition of failed state Kenya comes very close to a fit but its not a perfect fit.
You see sub Saharan Africa faces many odds which can be overcome by buying into some good ideas. I think the question that always comes to me when I think of sub Saharan Africa is the quality of ideas they buy into. You see in this modern world we living in the quality of Ideas you accept tells more about you than what you may want to say.
Kenya is not yet a failed state but we are working very hard to get there, aren’t we? It is now clear that little was learnt from the post election violence of 2008. Its business as usual as far as corruption, tribalism, mismanagement and incompetence are concerned.
Hav u ever written a positive article about Kenya?
I”m not Alfred Mutua. The positive articles I’ve done do not involve government policies because I think the entire present government is made up of a bunch of greedy jokers, but feel free to let us know of any positive things which you think should be highlighted.
Kenyans exposed themselves in 2007 and it was a good thing in ironic sort of way.
The Kalenjins, Luos and Kikuyus who were the main antagonists incurred heavy losses and I dont think they are willing to try the violent route again.
Waliona moto.
Luos and Kalenjins were thoroughly beaten by the govt and the Kikuyus were thoroughly beaten by the Kalenjins and the Luos.
Nobody wants that nonsense again.
2012 will be as peaceful as a prayer session. Trust me.
2012 will be peaceful because the whole world will be looking at Kenya. Just imagine the numbers of international press that will be here to report on the slightest outbreak of violence. That’s why there was little or no violence in 2002 because everybody expected chaos with Moi’s exit. But that does not mean that violence will not recur in 2017 or 2022. Kenya needs very serious change otherwise there’s no guarantee that fighting will not erupt again in future.
“Kenya is a very close to been a failed state. When a country can not feed its citizens, No water, No electricity, extreme endless politicking, grand corruption cases unsolved while Anti-corruption Tzars smile all the way to the bank, tribal politics taking center stage, our leaders never agree on anything even simple issues and politicians now campaigning for 2012 while we suffer
I do agree with you. Kenya is a poorly managed state. Good Governance is what that shall save our Nation. If only we were to elected responsible leaders who mind about the welfare of Kenyans & Kenya as a Country then we shall develop. It is a shame that 43 yrs after we achieved indipendence some of us are dying of hunger, some of us are jigger infested, some of us live in slums, we are highly taxed yet our govt doesnt deliver…..
Have you read the the book titles the “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas? Its quite refreshing.
I recommend it. The 2007 events were Kenya’s Black Swan and there could be more in store.
My take is the answer depends on whom you ask.
I think the majority of Kenyans would classify Kenya as a failed state.
The minority, who own Kenya, would disagree.
Depending on the frame of reference, me thinks each would be right.
This is the part which worries me the most. If 2012 does blow up, we need not worry about our political leaders. What we should worry about are the small kingdoms which will sprout out around the country.
Remember, nature abhors a vacuum…
Annon:
So, based on your analysis of there being a vaccum in terms of a rebel leader willing to fight, what then will happen if violence breaks out? i.e. What do you mean by the small kingdoms, which will sprout out?
In all of the comments above, there has been little mention of the army and what it’s role might become if violence breaks out. Nobody seems to know.
ke,
First of all, the PEV showed us the dark part of Kenyans as human beings. The question that, “Why did we THE PEOPLE have to stoop so low ?” At the end of the day people appealed to their darkest enclaves and the PEV occured.
For me I find it very hard to understand why Kenyans always like living in denial….
I’ll give you example of denial which are shared everyday among Kenyans and eventually get a life of their own until proven otherwise by something as tragic as the PEV ….
– Kenya will never face hunger again.
– Kenyans are smart and will not go down that road again i.e PEV
– There will never be grand scale corruption to the extent of golden berg.
– Kenya will achieve millennium development goals by 2015…
– Kenya will Achieve Vision 2030
– Kenya has enough resources to pay for all the debts it has…so lets keep on getting more debts…
– Kenyan politicians are not the biggest impediment to fighting corruption in the country..
— Kenya Iko na pesa mingi sana….
— Kenya is having an economic growth so we are better off as a country ..
— Kenya is better off than its neighbours anyway… why should we try harder… we are the best in the region… economically…
— Lets tie more money for social entitlements to the budgets after all who’s money is this for anyway… we can get more money from Multi lateral institutions.
– Insecurity is not the cause of capital flight….
– Impunity is not the biggest cause of lack of fdi’s…
– Kenya has the smartest leaders in the world… thats why they pay themselves that much money…
– All we need to do is to go to church on sunday and get baptized… and all our sins are forgiven… from Monday to Saturday we can do anything…
– Lets close our eyes and pray for our politicians maybe tomorrow they’ll wake up with a changed heart..
– Kenya needs a big cabinet… 40 is infact too small for a country of such diversity..
– Perpetrators of grand corruption should be left to walk away… “That is the best way to deal with the political equation”
–The government cannot just take away the Land from people who grabbed government Land…. Its too risky… It might end balkanizing the country worse than Rwanda…
– Ethnic hostility is not what fueled the PEV….
– Kenyans are the most God fearing people people on the planet ….
-When will the Kenyans wake up to the reality. It almost seems to me no one in country understands the basics of a market economy… NO ONE….. and this is why the vicious cycle will go on and on… Until someone decides enough is enough !!
–
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KE,
What I meant by saying nature abhors a vacuum is simply this:
Not having a national rebel leader whom most citizens, irrespective of tribe, would follow, is essentially bad for Kenya. In such a situation, I see us getting many tribal warlords, even down to the clan level, who’ll finance young idle men to shake down the citizens and consolidate their hold on local power. These leaders would, in effect, become little “kings” in their individual kingdoms, whether district or province sized. This is a cause many people, who will owe their direct allegiance (and lives) to the demigods, would be willing to fight for. Have you asked yourself who’s currently financing the Kenyan “arms race” and why they’re doing it? Who imported the containers of automatic weapons last year? The citizens who can barely feed themselves? We’re talking about investing major bucks here. To take this thought slightly further, think of what Kimunya, Ruto, et al do whenever they have been caught messing up. They run back to their kingdoms to defend themselves and enjoy the warm glow when surrounded by their subjects. Now let them give the said subjects guns and have someone try to go in to punish their anointed one.
During the 07/08 PEV, we heard many stories of people blocking the highways and taxing people i.e. “you wanna pass through here, lipa”. Effectively, they created their own little governments, not armed with lengthy court seizures, penalties etc if one defaults on paying tax, but using the slightly more efficient tool; a newly sharpened panga held to your neck.
Now, if we look at our current crop of tribal warlords masquerading as national leaders, that’s essentially what we have right now with the GCG. Only instead of directly shaking down the citizens using guns, these warlords are extorting us using flawed government institutions. Now take away these same institutions due to a breakdown of rule and order. What would we be left with? Instead of KRA, city council, and other institutions, it’ll be, as Dirty Harry once so eloquently put it, “Smith, Wesson, and I”.
The above set-up replicates itself across various countries in Africa which didn’t have a national rebel leader, starting with the (in)famous Somalia, down to the “rich” countries such as Nigeria, which itself has the same kind of broken down institutions such as we’re currently, ahem, enjoying in Kenya.
With reference to the army, it’s composed of citizens of Kenya, unfortunately broken down into their respective tribes. Trained in the use of weapons and the skills of combat. If (or rather when) Kenya finalizes breaking down, quite a few of the mid to senior-level officers will find their services in high demand for their respective kings. The foot soldiers would be available as mercenaries, cheap guns for hire. Look at the security details of most of warlords. Ex-service men. Raila used Edwin Otieno Nyaseda as his personal chief of security, remember? Also, bear in mind the Waki report mentions that weapons were stolen from an armory in Eldoret and somebody trained those youths on using them during the PEV. Who helped the youth know exactly what to steal and, most importantly, who did the training?
In short, this is why I would be very happy and relieved if we do get a national rebel leader, whether from the current crop or someone new. It would keep the country together. For an example on how an African country fairs without a national rebel leader, take a look at the DRC, among many.
Annon:
That is interesting analysis on how things might break down in Kenya, sans a national rebel leader.
This weekend we were subjected to the emergence of Kalonzo Musyoka’s presidential ambitions. He started off with speeches, where he did what he has always done, which is say not much of anything.
Then, I turn on the screen and see a very bitter looking Raila complaining (again) about the election that was stolen from him.
Another right turn leads me to the face of a very angry looking Michuki, telling Kalonzo to come out and declare his candidacy against Raila.
In all of these clips of anger and bitterness, you can see that neither side is going to be willing to negotiate anything with anyone. Kalonzo even going as far as saying that he fundamentally does not believe in coalition governments. A hint perhaps to Raila, that if he wins, the spoils will be all his; no sharing this time.
For the Kikuyu’s in power, I think they are only two goals:
1) To prevent Raila from ever walking into state house;
2) To prevent the Kalenjins from ever assuming power again.
If we take these two goals at face value, I fail to understand why Kalonzo is making political overtures to Ruto (the #1 enemy of the Kikuyu) — Kalonzo is going to need money from the Kikuyu to defeat Raila and therefore, making overtures to Ruto seems downright stupid. Someone explain that to me.
The only national leader I can see emerging will be an army general (if violence does in fact break out).
KE,
Anon here who wrote the slightly lengthy comment on the hazards of Kenya going to war without a nationally accepted (to the common people) rebel leader.
As regards Kalonzo, I’m like Mutahi Ngunyi and don’t bother wasting my time analyzing him or whatever he spews. Kalonzo is so thick he’s truly quite predictably. In his mind, the main criteria to be president are “godliness” and “Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the fairest of them all”. Delusional people like him who believe they’re personally anointed and on a mission from God are particularly dangerous. They can and will do really vicious things due to the voices they alone can hear. Ladies and Gentlemen, meet our very own stripped down version of Joseph Kony, albeit, thankfully, much more dim-witted. I’ve met Kalonzo on various occasions and believe me, he’s more of a twit than most people want to imagine. That’s why he’s mentally incapable of realizing he needs the Kikuyus to financially support him in the future. Think Johnny Bravo, ultra religious, on a mission from God.
I tend to think Michuki was more surprised at the new depths of Kalonzo’s idiocy than anything else. Raila, on his part, seemed to be trying to remind the RV warlords to be wary of Kalonzo. Nonetheless, let’s see if Raila’s forthcoming China trip to try and convince the Chinese to veto the ICC investigations if, or rather when, it comes up for voting at the UN Security Council will succeed. That alone would endear him more to the RV warlords then reminding them of Kalonzo helping steal the elections in 2007.
In all those clips of anger and bitterness you watched, the one common factor was Kalonzo. We unfortunately had the same issue in mid 2007 to early 2008, when Kalonzo humbly accepted the VP position. Therefore, your observation of the spoils not being shared by Kalonzo in 2012 was spot on. How can one seriously contemplate sharing what one has been personally promised, nah, given to him by God Almighty Himself?
Currently, for the Kikuyus in power, they seem to be firm believers of the saying “The enemy of my enemy if my friend”. This common enemy would be the international community with the supporting role going to the ICC. It may explain why Kibaki and Raila seem to be best buds of late. Note the very curious silence of the Kikuyu MP’s from the RV / central province after the rearming story broke out. Not a single word.
chiron,
I think you are the twit here. The fact that Kalonzo may not be “hallowed be thou art” in Kenyan politics and he may not be part of a certain political cabal in Kenya does not mean he’s irrelevant. If you look at his record, he is the only member of parliament running for presidency that complied with the wealth declaration. The problem with armchair politicians like you is that you believe the country can do with leaders who are not law abiding. Which is obviosly putting the cart before the horse.
You people need to start opening your eyes. Kenya is being controlled by some really greedy people. Kalonzo is the only person who respects the rule of law in this country. As far as leadership he is still better off since his career is an open book compared to many other tribal chiefs in the cabinet.
Sayeed,
First off, please let me know exactly where I wrote that Kenya is better off with leaders who’re not law-abiding.
Correctomondo, we really do need to start opening our eyes. Unfortunately, in my belief, Kalonzo fits your profile of greedy people and fails miserably. You may possibly know he was a very enthusiastic finger waving supporter of President Moi, who managed to bring Kenya to her knees through massive corruption among other misdeeds. Now you write to tell me that Kalonzo, a man who purports to respect the rule of law and the scriptures sat idly by doing nothing, except sing praises of Baba, is the chosen one? Did he not have respect for the Bible or, at the very least, the oath of office? If that’s how you measure the worth of a politician, would you believe Bashir is the best option for Sudan, because, for example, he’s the only politician there who brushes his teeth thrice a day after every meal? You’re dead right when you say Kalonzo is an open book. Unfortunately, the few pages are blank.
Interesting. Well, let’s see if we can put this in perspective. He was for years a member of Kanu as well as the secretary general. He sang praises for Baba na Mama. He was against the re-introduction of multi-party politics. Ah yes, he declared his wealth. Ok then, here’s my vote. Enjoy Statehouse. Don’t forget your Kanu life membership card.
Got you.
The politicians survive because they can always count on an electorate that spends hours discussing tribalistic formulas and will probably be neatly cleaved into camps again on the eve of the next elections.
We have never taken our nationhood, freedoms and rights seriously, and that is what keeps the decline going.
A failed state usually contains a failed people.
Btw, great blog!!
Chiron:
good prose. Me like.
An open book with blank pages?
Anyway, I just want to know what Kalonzo believes in besides Jesus Christ.
I was arguing with a friend yesterday about polls. I’d mentioned to her casually that I’d seen a poll putting Kalonzo ahead and she replied that she’d one with Raila ahead.
Then I responded about why it even mattered because I think the election in 2012 will either be rigged or it’ll be stolen through violence and intimidation.
I actually think that the silly mzungu giving out these poll numbers is doing a dangerous thing because the polls will fool a lot of people into thinking that their side is the winner and the “winner” will be determined by other un-democratic factors.
chiron,
Look the Rule of Law has to come before anything.
If any politician does not obey the rule of law then there is no knowing what to expect from him/her.
before we go out and proclaim kenya as failed.. a couple of points
* kenya is just under 50yrs old – to put that in perspective, our parents lived under colonial rule, some of our grand parents could relate to a time before we were fully colonized. it will take time for the idea of one nation (rather than 42 different ones) to really sink in. a fair proportion of the older generation still identify more with tribes than as kenyan.
* stable structure – a lot of what we have gone through over the last 20 yrs: saba saba, molo, goldenberg, anglo leasing, ‘07 elections etc. we’ve been able to bounce back from these without a complete loss of government. the base seems solid, its the top that needs to be polished.
im fairly optimistic that kenya will build on good governance (whether that comes in ‘12 or ‘17). when that happens, i belive the growth rate will be very high
Mkenya,
Please all these excuses ….. STOP !! We have heard enough of all this stuff about kenya being 50yrs and colonial legacy….
These are just excuses. The Country was on equal footing with South Korea…. Please don’t bring us this nonsense excuses. Something went seriously wrong somewhere and that’s Just the Fact. It has nothing to do with Kenya being 50yrs old or colonial rule. Passing the buck won’t do you good around here buddy. If you want to cry we can get you some paper towels to blow your nose, Facts are just that Facts accept them and move on.
India and Indonesia and Malaysia had colonial rule and got Independence around the same time as Kenya. What do you have to say about them.. Nothing… Just shut up and keep your excuses….. NEXT !!
in every race, there is first and last – while we are not ahead on this race, we are far from lagging behind.
comparing to india, south korea etc, does show that we could have done better. however, we dont have the same culture and society which are key in setting development goals.
i’m not pushing for us to rest on our laurels having outperformed somalia, however, we also need to be realistic about what can be achieved in a given amount of time.
we keep bashing the development we have had so far, forgetting that investors read these as well. why keep harping on the negatives if all that does is reduce foreign investor confidence. doesnt that ultimately slow us down?
i believe pessimism will take us nowhere. optimism albeit grounded in what we can achieve over a given timeframe is what we should be looking at.
Mkenya,
I have a quote from what you just said….
“In every race, there is first and last.”
You see, this is where you go wrong. I believe this statement should read like this…
” In every race there is a first and Last. I will be the first.”
Let me show you the difference in these two statements.
Statement one acknowledges that every race has a first and last person.
Despite statement one acknowledging first and last. It leaves in the open the question of where he/she is supposed to be. For all we know the person saying the statement might be gunning for an average score or less.
Statement two on the other hand acknowledges a race has to have first and last. The person saying statement two goes further to claim their imperative of being first than any other position in the race.
In my humble opinion I plea the person saying statement two is more of an optimist than the person saying statement one.
true true!!
The answer? It all dwells in our minds our votes and our sanity and sanctity.
If we realised this then, 2012 will be as peaceful.
Its me who holds the answer to this country’s future, its you. Not Kibaki nor Raila!
Shame to coalition/oops confused government for it will never come out with something that will hold water for kenyans instade they’ll turn the bread on the buttered side and throw it to innocent mwananchi.