The case of the missing Bullets
So, I was reading the Standard this week and there’s a story in there about the police finding 100,000 bullets, which were supposedly stolen from a weapons armory.
About one month ago, someone sent me an email telling me that a former general in the Kenyan army (who is now retired) had told him that bullets were going missing at arms depots around the country. I mentioned it on Twitter that month, but people ignored the story. I’m writing about it here because I again believe that Kenyans are choosing to ignore the signs that are appearing on the horizon.
The Standard story included the name of the Administration Police chief who was in charge of one of the armourey’s where bullets went missing and his name was Joseph Maritim. Two years ago, I talked about the danger that the Kalenjins in the Rift Valley were posing and this is not baseless tribal bashing. The Kalenjins were in power for 24 years under Moi. Then, Kibaki came in and started going after them and they are still very angry. This is tribal power politics at it’s worst and it’s Kikuyu vs. Kalenjin because those are the two tribes that have held power in Kenya. Let’s not sugar coat things here.
That Kibaki has still not changed the people in charge of the weapons depots should concern everyone. This man is still not taking security issues seriously even after the PEV! And what exactly is Saitoti doing?
When I read the book (Land of A Thousand Hills) – a book about Kagame and the RPF and how they took over Rwanda, the first thing they did was raid the weapons depots in Uganda so they could launch their war. They were many Rwandese soldiers in the Ugandan army and Museveni mistakenly believed that their loyalty was to Uganda, but it never was. It was to Rwanda and when Museveni left Uganda for a trip to UN, they raided those depots, got their weapons and the war was launched (and the Ugandan arms depots were well protected, but Kagame was the head of Uganda’s military intelligence unit and in a way, he betrayed Museveni, but he had to do what he had to do for the sake of his country.
So, basically, my point is, you cannot allow people who have already shown you that they are willing to use violence near any arms depots!
It’s not even about protecting Kikuyu’s or anything like that. It’s about ensuring that people don’t have the opportunity to plunge the country into even worse chaos.
I’d be curious to read what people think about this because I’m somewhat stunned by the incompetence.
*** Interesting article on the accumulation of weapons and the dangers it is posing.
I first read the story on Wednesday and after checking out the list of arsenal listed in the story, I knew this wasn’t some local thugs planning a robbery. This is equipment capable of launching more harm on a much wider scale.
Thursday’s story proved even more chilling after the unamed officer mentions how coordinated it is….remove police road blocks to allow safe passage.
There’s still a lot of grudge out there; there needs to be a public forum to address this. Some kind of national reconciliation with like they did in S.A. and Rwanda. And it has to be on the community level, town level, village level (addressing people in a stadium does not cut it). And this with or without our leaders.
KE
Relax. This guy is smuggling arms to Congo.
There will be no war in kenya.
Secondly, the rwandan soldiers invaded rwanda with the full assistance of museveni. Furthermore, it was not kagame who led the invasion. It was fred rwigyema.He was killed shortly after the invasion and that is when kagame was called from america to take over.
Pls don’t speculate too much. Get the facts first.
Annon:
If you read the book (again, people not reading) you would know that Museveni was incensed when he learnt about the raid while he was in New York.
However, later on (after the invasion) he realized that if the Tutsi’s won, they’d help him get rid of the Rwandan refugee problem, which Uganda was having trouble with and that’s when he allowed the Tutsi’s to use Uganda as a base, but initially, he was furious with the Rwandese because it was a betrayal.
Rwigeyma did not act alone. Those Rwandese Tutsi’s who were in the Ugandan army planned this together. Also remember, that Rigyema was killed on the first night of the invasion and Kagame took over after that.
Anyway, how are you so sure these weapons are heading to the Congo?
And I’m not speculating when I say that I first heard about this story a month ago and it was from a retired general who was very concerned about the missing bullets and generally, about the security lapses and disorganization.
Nobody said Kenya is going to have a civil war. I talked about chaos which may be more lethal. It is difficult to launch a war and I’ve said before, our politicians are too fat and too greedy to do it, but they can cause chaos (and innocent lives could be lost because of their recklessness and incompetence).
KE,
This issue about illegal weapons in Kenya has been documented many times since the 90’s (for an example, see http://www.hrw.org/legacy/repo.....a0502.pdf)
The issue of J. Maritim and his being Kalejin is a non sequitur. Do you think the armoury is opened up with only one key? How ’bout getting the consignments out of the AP compound? How ’bout starting a war with handguns (for that is what the majority of the bullets were for).
In my opinion, something ain’t adding up. Coincidentally, Annan, who during his last visit had warned about the arms race, was just about to leave town when the consignment was found.
@ Chiron. They’re not “illegal” weapons (notice the bullets are manufactured in Eldoret). They’re legal and just happen to be in the wrong hands. And the question is how they got there and why?
Kenyans in denial once again.
The signs of a dark future for the country are there but few are heeding the warnings. It is amazing how Kenya is going down the exact same path as Rwanda did years before the genocide. They had the occasional massacre, coalition governments, international mediation, rumors of war and stockpiling of arms. As usual, the Kenyan government would like to pretend that all is well, but it isn’t.
That is not to say that I wish for war. After all, I live in Kenya and I would be most affected should the worst happen. But I believe the best way of dealing with a problem is by facing it head on and that is not what we are doing as a country.
I think Kibaki is doing as much as possible to change the composition of the armed forces without being too obvious. It’s mainly the Kikuyu who are buying the weapons, and the demand is satisfied by the Somalis.
KE
I disagree with you on the Rwanda thing because first of all I was born in Rwanda and I know the history of Rwanda very well (on a personal basis). Do not believe what you read in propaganda biased books.
I can confirm for you that the RPF went into Rwanda with full blessings of Museveni.
Do you think Museveni would openly admit that he sponsored the invasion of a neighbouring country that ended in genocide??
In addition, the Americans and the British were also well aware of what was happening and they were on the side of the RPF. The French and the Belgians on the other hand were supporting the Rwandese government.
But this discussion is about Kenya and Bullets:
The reason why it is difficult to sustain a civil war in Kenya is because there is a sizable middleclass which has a lot to lose if there is a war. This middleclass is composed of all ethnic groups. They are leading comfortable lives. It is now accepted that this is one of the main reasons that the chaos ended so quickly in Kenya because many people wanted to go back to their comfortable lives – including the armed forces.
One thing I can assure you is this, the moment for violence in Kenya has passed. The danger was in Dec/Jan 2007 and it is not likely to occur again. This time the government will come down very heavily on any violence – with the support of the international community.
Indeed, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda will be the first countries to invade Kenya if there is total chaos.
Kenya will now enjoy peace for many decades to come.
@P Thanks, I stand corrected.
The main reason the chaos was “temporary” halted was not due to the middle class. It was due to the ruling class being warned that they would be personally held accountable. That is why they called a truce (note they did not back down).
In fact, if you take a cursory look at the economy since the PEV ended, the middle class is slowly and surely being decimated. The poor remain as they have also being; poor and growing. The rich ruling see nothing wrong.
The danger we face as a country is some of our “leaders”. They promise the poor a better future ahead which is only achievable under their “leadership”. The poor, with nothing to loose, blindly follow them. If and when these corrupt leaders decide to take us to war, the middle class will have no say. Look at how it happened at the Côte d’Ivoire.
The worst for Kenya is if the ICC process comes to naught (which, unfortunately, it looks likely to happen. Are you watching the body language of the Western Ambassadors). The corrupt “leaders” will now even more firmly believe they can do anything and get away with it. Impunity rules once again.
Annon:
Since you say you are Rwandese, let me ask you a couple of questions:
1) My understanding was that the Tutsi were forced to flee to Uganda over the years because of the violence against them and that’s how Uganda ended up with a Tutsi refugee problem. Then, the Tutsi asked the Hutu regime if they could return. They wanted a truce and wanted to be able to live in their country. When the Hutu’s said no, the Tutsi’s then decided that the only way to go back to their country was to fight their way in and this is what sparked the initial civil war.
In response to this violence from the Tutsi refugee’s, the Hutu regime decided to retaliate. At first, the retaliations begun slowly, but as the violence increased and as the Tutsi rebels became increasingly better, the Hutu regime decided to really finish them off once and for all and that is when the planning for the genocide begun.
Is this analysis correct or not?
Chiron:
You mentioned the middle class being decimated. Is it possible to decimate a middle-class to that extent in just two short years? assuming that the middle class had been rising prior to the PEV.
It’s funny you mentioned the ICC because someone else said that to me last weekend. He said if the ICC doesn’t work, they’ll be trouble. Why?
Conclusion:
My main concern is this. When you are in charge of a country with that many poor people, you have to hold it together with force, otherwise it will gradually explode. So, it seems that some are saying that no, Kenya will not explode because it’s middle-class is sizable and they’ll have too much to lose if the country descends. While others are saying that actually, the size of it’s middle-class is not that large and we are fooling ourselves into thinking that it is.
Look at Cote d’ivoire
Annonymous
You a great thinker which is testament to how determined the Rwandese are to lead from the front.
i can only wish the East African Community can integrate as fast as possible so that we can benefit from our different experience but similar identities.
Its is only good times ahead.
KE
The parents of the Tutsi generation that formed the RPF left Rwanda in 1959 and in the years that followed.
Majority settled in Uganda, Kenya, Congo and Tanzania. Do not believe that the RPF was only composed of Ugandan refugees. They came from all ove the world. However, the hardcore of the revolutionaries came from Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. Most of them were settled in Dar-es-Salaam in the late 60 and early 70s.
If you know Museveni very well, you will know that he studied in the university of Dar-es-Salaam. This is where Museveni formed links with the Rwandese refugees. They helped him to start a rebellion first against Idi Amin and later against the second Obote government until he won the war in 1986.
The Rwandese always had the aim of going back to Rwanda and Museveni was always going to help them do that once they had stabilised Uganda! So do not believe what you read in books.
As for the genocide, I can’t speak about that as it is still unclear about what exacty triggered it. It just shows you what human beings are capable of. But I can tell you that both the RPF and the Rwandese government committed atrocities as it is the case in every war. No one side is ever clean. However, the winner always claims the moral high ground.
The important lesson is that in any war in Africa, there is no winner. We are all losers. What we need to do is to unite and work together. That is the only way we can develop.
I am a great believe in a peaceful future for Kenya. I have lived and worked in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and many other countries and I can frankly tell you that Kenyans would be VERY FOOLISH to go to war. There is absoultely no reason for it.
Kenyans should count their blessings and try and reform their system without stupid fighting.
We in Rwanda learnt the hard way. We now wish we had done things in a different way – and there was an opportunity for that but we ignored it and chose war.
I love Kenya by the way.
Annon:
I don’t think anyone is advocating war or even wishes it for Kenya. However, what I am really asking is this:
How long can a country remain stable when it is consistently, poorly, governed and when that governance keeps increasing it’s rates of poverty?
At some point, one of two things is going to have to happen:
A) Either the country gets the right leadership and things start to fundamentally change (or)
B) The increasing poverty IS going to lead to violence (because how long can people take it?)
And I suppose this has been the never ending story of so many African countries. i.e. the populations just get to a point where they say enough. We’re not going to take it anymore and that’s when they explode into violence.
Democracy is not bringing competent governance and that’s the big problem here.
war always happen when there is someone to fund and organise it.
In the case of PEV the mass action call provided an opportunity for Idle kenyans to engage in violent behaviours just to enrich themselves case in point kisumu and mombasa.
Kalenjins on the other hand Used the Election as an excuse to revange on wrongs commited by colonial powers and Kenyatta.
Very few people heeded the mass action philosophy
Kinyua:
500,000 people were displaced from their homes and from their livelihoods in a matter of days. Thousands lost their lives. Somebody organized and funded them.
Since then, there has been no resolution of this issue. To think that the anger has simply vanished, would be naive.
It was not revenge just for a stolen election. These tribal clashes have been going on since 1992. They are not spontaneous acts of violence.
There is going to come a point when people are going to fight back, especially now that they’ve realized the government won’t come to their defense.
They can’t just keep going on like this in the face of a growing and young population. It is dangerous.
to add to what someone said on rwanda , kagame and his rwandesse fought for and helped museveni come to power believing at the very least they would get ugandan citizenship . when museveni came to power due to pressure from his suppoters both in civil and military quaters he was not able to deliver this , partly due to the fear that rwandesse were too powerful militarily in his movement , so he agreed to help the tutsi invade rwanda. .
As for the tutsi they realized they were never going to have a place to call home unless they went back home which was not an option with the government of the time unless they “took” home , and thus the invasion . and of course the western powers namely the british and americans were for that because the invading tutsi were english speakers raised in uganda as refugees … essentially an invasion and eventual win would mean more english influence over french in that part of africa .
As for kenya , there are a few points i would like to contribute:
Firstly, if there is any greatness to claim on kenya then it is due to every single man , woman and child and of course every inch of land /natural resource …. not any tribe . whatever we have to say about each other as tribes , we STILL have to wake up and go to sleep as kenyans in the “same bed” . Any underlying issues from the past that have led to violence cannot be wished away and still continue to exist ,the bigger problem lies in our inability as kenyans to elect leaders who positively engage these issues and try to resolve them .
Something important to bear in mind , be it kikuyu , kalenjin , luo and the rest , im sure everyone feels an injustice was perpetuated against them or their people as a result of colonialism and past governments …. so if each on of us was to lift a panga against the other in the name of righting this injustice then what do we have after?
no ones problems are more special than the next and we should bear that in mind when we start crying about and justifying violent solutions , poor is poor whether in central or the rift , illitracy is the same whether in nyanza or the coast , HIV kills whether in nairobi or eastern . for me kenya truly is a paradise … i hope we wont destroy it and hope my kids will live to share in that paradise . and yeah fuck the current lot we call leaders .
Recently there were two separate incidents of ‘civilians’ with bombs in Meru and Nairobi. I think such cases should set us really thinking: are people stockpiling and for what? Why would anyone be heading with a bomb (likely from Somalia via Isiolo-Meru) toward Nakuru? And for the one caught, how many passed unnoticed? Our national security should be more vigilant