Kenya’s Democratic Illusion Is Finally Unravelling
By kenyanentrepreneur Sunday, February 14th, 2010
Three years ago, on this blog, I outlined what I thought were various “truth’s” about Kenya’s false democracy.
I talked about Raila Odinga and how he had no power (anyone who had cared to read the “agreement” struck in 2007 would have seen this “truth”)
I said the grand coalition government, which I termed the grand illusion government, would not work.
I said the real fight in Kenya was between the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin, the two tribes that have ruled the country since independence and that now hold the most power and the most money.
I said that the Kalenjins in the rift valley were the real danger and they remain so today.
However, many did not want to believe that Kenya’s democracy was an illusion and they came here and rankled all kinds of abuses and fantasy opinions, like instructing me not to talk about these “truths” and telling me to instead focus on the illusion of democracy in Kenya. So, today, I am back here repeating what I said three years ago and it is this:
The most dangerous elements in Kenya today are still the Kalenjins in the rift valley
Someone told me about the bullets being stolen from the factory in Eldoret a whole six months ago (before it even hit the news). A small group of army generals who met on a regular basis knew about it a long time ago. The bullets are being stolen and diverted by Kalenjins and the army knows it.
Kibaki is going to continue re-organizing the security forces around Kamba’s and Kikuyu’s and he’ll continue getting rid of as many Kalenjins as possible.
Kalonzo Musyoka will most likely be the safest choice for president for the Kikuyu’s who are currently ruling Kenya (they will never, ever, allow Raila into state house. Emphasis on the word “allow“)
I would like to utter one more “truth” while I am at it: The Parliamentary Select Committee on the Constitutional Review (or whatever the heck it’s called) is a farce that will produce nothing.
This is a fight for power between the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin. The fight is not over and it will continue into 2012 until a winner emerges.
If you want to get a clear picture of what will happen, the only politician worth listening to is John Michuki. The anger and emotion that seeps through his face whenever he gives a speech, is real.
It’s time to stop sugar coating what is really happening.
This video is a joke. Who gave Raila such shoddy legal advice? What authority? Raila should just resign after this debacle, humiliation and embarrassment.
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Three years ago, on this blog, I outlined what I thought were various “truth’s” about Kenya’s false democracy.
Ke,
U seriously need to join a Law school nearest to you or your conspiracy theories will always make sense to you and you alone.
Get you a J.D or an LLB. It will help a lot trust me.
Mdomo Baggy:
Really?
Is there something special they teach about the world in law school?
I’m thinking about Professor Yash Pal Ghai as I write this. He teaches Constitutional Law at a university in Hong Kong. Yes, yes….his theories on constitutional law were very successful in the
real worldKenya.Do you know if you can take a class in law school that teaches you how to write a constitution in a banana republic?
Pssst lets create a new national accord drama,maybe they will forget the Maize scandal was coordinated, supervised and executed from my own office” Raila Odinga
[...] View post: Kenya's Democratic Illusion Is Finally Unravelling … [...]
That is interesting. What is your take on “one of their own? Let’s say, Uhuru Kenyatta?
What a mess!! Seriously, why not divide Kenya and let the Luos have their own country? what’s the point of coexisting with people you loathe?
And it saddens me when you as an elite turns tribalist. I am a Kikuyu but i wouldn’t preach for Kikuyu supremacy. If Kenya burns we stand to lose more than the other tribes you consider less Kenyans.
KE
This is sheer panic.
I have told you many times that Kenya is on the right path.
I bet you that nothing will happen.
The constitution will reign supreme. The country will continue to make great strides both politically and economically in the next decades. And there will be now war in Kenya – much to your disappointment.
Correction:
The Parliamentary Select Committee has already finished its work and handed their recommendations back to the Committee of Experts. The next stage is the parliament where the draft will be debated. There will then be a referendum.
I am convinced that you dont know much about the things that you post here.
It’s one of those situations were every one assumes the counterparty is planning to kill them and with chaps like you on the other side i think it would be wise for all other communities to either buy a gun or live the country. In the end raila is not the illusion is kenya our little yugoslavia it would be better if the country was broken up into smaller more ethnically homogeneous countries ending this illusion
Out of sheer curiosity could you explain why Raila made such a fool of himself, televised live, was he set up or was this a gamble that Kibbz would support him ? Jesus i thought this guy was the slickest there was now it seems that old snoring man is slicker. Remember a politician only duty is to be relected do not be suprised by a KKK or whatever alliance this guys are whores for the power and money
Kibbz is probably laughing his ass off in state house ODM is a dead duck.
Annon:
What do you mean by the constitution will reign supreme? Which constitution?
Wasn’t there a referendum before? What happened after that referendum? Oh..let me see. The election violence in 07 broke out after the results from the presidential election were disputed. Were was this “supreme” constitution you just mentioned and why wasn’t it used to resolve the crisis peacefully? legally? constitutionally?
Now, listen to this: Raila is saying that Kibaki had no power to un-suspend his decision and Kibaki’s actions are illegal and unconstitutional
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldserv.....inga.shtml
KE
I meant to say that there will be NO war in Kenya in my earlier post.
As for the constitution, I mean to say that there is a constitution in Kenya right now. The National Accord is embedded in the constitution and hence the matter will be resolved amicably.
As far as I know, the constitution has not been suspended – unless you know any better.
As for my analysis, it is based on the situation in Kenya post the 2007 election violence. It is a diffrenet Kenya.
Has it occured to you that ODM is no more?????
Has it occurred to you that a huge chunk of the 2007 ODM has joined forces with PNU?????
Even if there were elections today – they would still be constitutonal.
Let us not get overexcited about a storm in a teacup.
Let me add some additional points here on constitutional law issues, which I think people are missing.
Constitutional law is not like a mathematical equation. It is often filled with lots of nuances that leave it open to interpretation.
In advanced democracies, when there is confusion over constitutional law issues, the highest court of the land, is the body that has the legal authority to clarify these points of law and their decision becomes binding on everyone (since these courts are the highest courts in the land and no lower court can overturn their decision once it’s been made).
However, as we saw in Bush vs. Gore (when the Supreme Court had to step in and resolve the presidential election) – the interpretation of law is done by human beings who are filled with their own political biases and those biases absolutely inform their final decisions. Again, the law is not like science. It’s very subjective.
So, in Bush vs. Gore, they were more republican justices on the court and therefore, once their political biases seeped into their decision making process, it was inevitable that Bush was going to become the winner. Had there been more liberal justices on that court, Gore would have become the winner.
Now, what Raila is doing is sheer madness because he is acting like a justice on the supreme court and he is interpreting the law himself( for himself, by himself). Nowhere in the world are politicians or other citizens allowed to interpret laws to suit themselves. If that was allowed to happen, everyone would interpret the laws to suit themselves and then, what would be the purpose of having a court system? or any laws for that matter?!!
Now, I’m not going to absolve Kibaki because he too is interpreting the law by himself, for himself and to suit himself. Both men are crazy, but at the end of the day, which man controls the security forces in the country? The answer is Kibaki and as a result, I submit to you, that Kibaki’s power is not coming from the constitution. It’s coming from the fact that he controls the security forces (i.e. it is coming from the gun).
The heads of the army, the GSU, the police force, the administration police, the CID….are pretty much all GEMA (although the chief of the army is a Kamba, but they are with Kibaki now, not Raila).
So, I’m not sure what Raila is doing. Does he expect Kibaki to simply bow down and accept HIS interpretation of the law? Kibaki is not going to do that and unless Raila has the resources to mount a coup, he will remain a powerless Prime minister. Ongeri and Ruto will just ignore him and what is he going to do?
This is the reality.
There is no hope for the country ever having a clean government. So I don’t know where you get the idea that Kalonzo is a safe choice.
The common man wants corruption eradicated but they are being held hostage by a corrupt political elite that’s apathetic to their disposition. As it stands now Kenya is a country held under hostage by the corrupt for the corrupt and with the corrupt. And this situation will never change unless we have a president who does not condone any form of corruption by the political elite. Kalonzo is certainly no such leader this is no secret he’s a bedfellow with a host of corrupt politicians.
So as it stands now the common man will continue suffering. Certainly more power to the corrupt. I blame the west for this mess. I have to say… Had they not been doling out all these so called “Aid”…. we’d not be dealing with so many cases of corruption. The so called ‘aid’ only served to expand and enrich the corrupt political elite and make them more stronger, more stubborn and out of control.
Without outside intervention to put Kenya back on track the political class will most certainly cause the country much bloodshed as a result of corrupt politicians settling scores through back room deals to maintain the status quo and to protect their ilk. This will almost result to another classical example of a failed state and lost opportunities by many young Kenyans. By outside i mean there needs to be a concerted effort to forcibly put a president that will tame the corrupt political class in Kenya anything short of that is only a recipe for a bloodshed and unending acrimony.
Mdomo Baggy:
You came here with a lot of bravado. Telling me to get a J.D. and now your not making sense
You want a president to be put there “forcibly”, but then you turn around and say anything short of that will be a recipe for bloodshed and unending acrimony? huh?
Anything short of force will lead to bloodshed? So, what is force? I don’t understand what you are saying, really.
Paula:
I am not advocating tribalism. I am telling you that Kenya is a tribal country. It’s entire political system is seeped in tribalism and to deny that it exists is to live in a fantasy world. People need to start being honest about what their country has become. Stop fooling yourselves into believing that Kenya is this modern, constitutional democracy because it’s not.
What do you think Raila, Kibaki and Ruto are fighting for? They’re fighting for power. Tribal power, not democracy or the rule of law or even human rights.
This is all about power and money.
@ke,
U don’t need to understand me. An Ignorant person like you is best treated with more ignorance. That’s your medicine. Nothing should make sense to you.
You should change your name from KE to Orie Rogo Manduli since every inch of you is full of political nuances. You truly fit the description of a Kenyan politician.
KE makes alot of sense on this one. In africa the power is with the guy who controls the forces…Nyayo learned that in 82 and that lesson enabled him to stay in power and dictate for over two decades. And that power has not left kales completely. I dont think giving raila power to supervise the Gov is any real power in African terms.. The head of state has the seat of power…this is Africa guys. That’s why am agreeing with KE that Kibz is probably trying to consolidate this power to empower kalonzo come 2012 or at least take from kales. Again guys this is Africa .
If you don’t agree ask the Rwandese or even Museveni .
The truth really hurts and it’s always (always) easier to shoot the messenger.
KE, Kibaki and Raila are just being honest about their greed for power, as you had posted a while ago. I thought honesty was a virtue, n’est pas?
Mdomo Baggy:
How do you install a president “forcibly” without using violence? This is an oxymoron. The use of force requires violence, no? or am I missing something here?
America is the world’s super-power because at present, it has the largest army in the world.
The British empire existed because England had the largest navy in the world and the most powerful army. Then, what happened? America defeated Europe in World War II and guess what? That’s when the U.S. dollar became the world’s reserve currency. Yes, sir…
Before World War II what was the world’s reserve currency? you guessed it. The British pound!
Then America bombed people into extinction, won and quickly imposed THEIR currency as the world’s dominant transaction for business. That’s why Obama can print like there’s no tomorrow and Mugabe can’t.
Obama should thank the makers of the atomic bomb because they are the one’s who have made it possible for him to print endlessly (and he should stop lying to us with this nonsense about hope and change. It’s fire power that rules the world. Everywhere.
ke,
If you read Ngugi wa Thio’ngo you will understand what i’m saying. The country is being held hostage by the corrupt political elite. What part of this statement don’t you understand ?
Tribalism is just one of the tools in their tool box to create fear that power they are bound to lose. If you read my previous reply I said as it stands now there is no hope for a clean government in Kenya. Many people defending Kibz, Ruto, Raila, Ongeri are doing so on ethnic persuasions. The truth is the issue of political responsibility is something which is not a favorite topic with the political elite in Kenya.
I suggested using force because the West has the power of changing the political equation in Kenya easily. If they close all these aid taps and ban all these corrupt officials from traveling abroad. Then the Kenyan diaspora and community abroad need to step in and fund a person who will tame the political elite of Kenya.
I don’t know if you every had a friend in Kenya who is a politician. These people are some of the most greedy and self seeking people I have ever encountered. The political elite of Kenya can only be tamed by the a president who does not condone corruption and nepotism so far in Kenyan history none of them has passed this test. Force can also empowering the youth to take on seasoned corrupt politicians in elections.
I’ll find the clip for Ngugi and post it for you to hear him in his own words.
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/ca.....ures/45051
http://www.youtube.com/user/K2.....TdisqwoiEg
KE
America did not defeat Europe!!!!!! What do u mean?
If u know ur history very well, u will understand that it is Russia that defeated Germany in the world war 2. It was Russian soldiers that took Berlin. Get ur facts right.
As for the British Empire, it was not the greatest empire. That is just propaganda. The French, the Spanish, the Portuguese and the Belgians all had colonies all over the world. The French and the Spanish colonies were as big as the British colonies.
As for Kenya, we should learn disagree without violence. That will be the measure of our political maturity. And this time there will be no violence.
Do you think there will be a response if Raila calls for his favourite MASS ACTION???? I don’t think so.
Kenyans have learnt their lessons. So the country will continue whether politicians disagree or not.
Raila stole the maize
http://muigwithania.com/
Can somebody please tell me what Miguna Miguna is smoking?
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-.....index.html
Now, Miguna is trying to infer that the AG”s interpretation of the law is incorrect, but if you read my earlier explanations on how constitutional law issues are resolved in banana republics, you’d know the answer: Which is? Kids? hey? repeat after me:
In Africa, nobody gives a rat’s ass about anyone’s interpretations.
Why?
Because the law is controlled by whoever controls the guns, aka the army, aka the security forces.
At this point, if I was Kibaki, I’d just ignore Miguna and Raila. Just let them keep talking. Wata do?
And this is not about supporting Kibaki. If Raila was the president and if he controlled the security forces, the law would be whatever HE says it is.
Is Miguna the Chief Justice of the High Court of Kenya? He has no authority to be issuing interpretations on anything.
If Kenya was a law abiding country, the high court would be the body that would resolve these constitutional law issues (not Miguna or Raila or Kibaki) – but since Kenya is not a country of laws, it’s the jeshi ya mzee that decides what the law is.
KE
I don’t support either side but I understand Miguna Miguna is a Canadian citizen.
On that score alone, I think Raila has no moral authority to be claiming the legal right when his own legal expert AKA Miguna Miguna is blatantly breaking Kenyan law. Kenya does not allow dual citizenship.
As for the dispute, don’t worry about it. There will be no MASS ACTION aka violence – even if Raila walks out of the coalition.
I seriously don’t know who gives Raila advice. He should be fired.
Anonymous,
You forgot Russia and the US were on the same side…aka the allies (remember the big 3)and they emerged as the superpowers leading into cold war, which the US late won.You also know that throughout history, the guy with the strongest forces’ gonna run the town.A simple historical fact.But you can argue on kenya’s constitution, or whether a canadian citizen should be hired.
The commentary here is very interesting. If it’s not the usual strong stereotypes seeping through about what ethnic group is powerful & money hungry, it’s some 2 bob solution/analysis of what is going on. Long live KE.com!Lord have mercy. Are you for real?
I have never seen a simple sacking bring the country to a stand still. Bringing Koffi Annan into the situation and the U.S ambassador giving firm notices of his watchful eye just reminds me, that the Kenyan government is still filled with, pardon my french, a bunch of simple simon
motherfuckers.Kenyan politicians are kindergarten students and Koffi Annan & company are the teachers.Can G4S steal another load of money so that this nonsense can get off the news? G4S, Gone 4 Sure, Good 4 Stealing.. anyone have anymore?
Annon:
Please tell me how the U.S. dollar became the world’s currency reserve after World War Two. I await your answer.
KE
It was because the US lent Europe money for reconstruction through the Marshall Plan. Have you ever heard of the Marshall Plan? I bet you haven’t – but anyway, go and do some research on it.
History Lesson 1:
The world was divided into 2 camps after the second world war. They were the communist bloc and the capitalist bloc. The communist bloc was headed by the USSR and the capitalist bloc was headed by the US, western Europe (and Japan to a lesser extent).
Communism proved to be unworkable in the long run and the USSR-led bloc collapsed in euphoric scenes in 1985.
Capitalism has also proved unworkable in recent times with manisfestations of severe global inequity and the recent global collapse of the markets.
History Lesson 2
It is true to a certain extent that nuclear powers have a stronger voice in world affairs. But do not be mistaken the US respects China, India and Russia because of their nuclear capability. The US especially fears Russia because Russia can overrun western Europe in the blink of an eye (certainly Eastern Europe).
History Lesson 3
Oh, why bother????
NB: The US could not even invade mainland Japan in WW2. They decided to drop the A-bomb because they were scared of a land invasion.
Annon:
It had nothing to do with the fact that the US lent Europe the money, but if you want to believe that illusion feel free to do so.
The other information you’ve made is almost irrelevant and I’ll tell you why.
There is no way Great Britain and Russia would have just bowed down and allowed America to make the dollar the world’s reserve currency had America not “won” that war and become the clear victor.
After WWII America became the strongest country in the world (both militarily & economically) and he who has the gold, makes the rules.
Again, please remember that before WW2, the British pound was the world’s reserve currency and that is because England had the strongest army in the world.
@Muigwithania,
I went through your blog. I clicked on the tribe tab and I read through some of your ruminations.
You seem to be a Kikuyu loyalist or fundamentalist whichever fits your liking. Here is where now I don’t agree with you and many other pro tribe crusaders like you. How do you expect a country to forge together in one resolve with people like you preaching Kikuyu nationalism. How can a country move forward as one ?
You see this is what i have always seen as biggest obstacle that Kenya will ever have to face.
Isn’t the Nation bigger than the tribe ?
Are the issues a common Kikuyu faces not the same as the issues any other common man in Kenya faces ?
How can you even have the guts of posting a blog with a title ” Are Kikuyu’s the Jews of Kenya “… ( I believe you deserve to be prosecuted for just that post ) .
Nobody denies Kikuyu history. But Kikuyu, Luo, Kalenjin are now part of another History and that is the History of Kenya.
These are some of the reasons why I have vowed never to be part of any of the Kikuyu association here abroad. Being a part or listening to a Kikuyu Radio station abroad are not part of my routine.
I hate people who think their tribe is superior than others.
mdomo baggy ,
People of every tribe think they are superior..Kales, kyuks, Luos even Masais do, Coast people call others “watoka bara” and so on.
So I think you do have some hating to do. By your moniker I even think you hate yourself.
We have a problem Houston !!
@mwalimu.. Lol.. Looks like your part of the bandwagon. The ethnic cleansing and nationalism machinery is fighting back. Sweet. First, Pro tribe and ethnic cleanse crusaders like you ought to be shot at point blank( and am really serious about this one). Especially the ones who plant seeds of discord and rally the tribes against each other on ethic grounds. No sustainable collective development can ever take place with such type of attitude. Just because there exists another tribal fundamentalist like you does not mean two wrongs make a right. You are free to believe as you wish but you ought to be ashamed that your conscience has seeds of prejudice and by extension Genocide.
Hate myself ? …. Dude I just came off from doing my loving myself routine. You don’t wanna know anything about that boy…
The last time you seen or heard about that was probably on a scene in some Bond seven movie. Their are finer things in life buddy you guys really need to get of this nonsense.
Then again… at least you honestly admit you are crusader. I usually compare tribal crusaders with the nigger attitude here in the States. This is way over my head why people want to think and live like this. I don’t think any amount of prayers can help. Sad… really sad !!
As for my moniker.. Maybe you are right. I should change my moniker. Am thinking ‘Alpha Male’ should work just right. What do you think @Mwalimu ?
mdomo baggy,
Hey hey, poa , wacha vita zako!
I was pointing out your contradictory statements:
You say you hate, and in the same breath you are preaching peace…thats exactly what happening in kenya, its called intolerance it soon manifestests my friend..and you are proving to be part of the problem.
BTW, About what I think about your moniker..keep it as is,its providing a good image of you, whenever you open your damn mouth.
mwalimu,
“Intolerance soon manifests”… What intolerance ?
I said they need to be prosecuted and the crime should be treasonable. Just the same way i have said corruption should be treated.
Look at countries like China and learn how people’s behavior can be changed with such punishment.
The is no other way to change things in Kenya Most problems are caused by Kenyans themselves by allowing them to become the laughing stock of the globe in the name of freedom.
KE
I recall your dire predictions and I too did not believe it until now. Raila was really played
Mzeiya:
It’s almost crazy how people don’t want to come to terms with reality even when it’s staring right in their faces.
Why do you think that is?
I mean, that society is going to have to re-work itself and it won’t be pretty. If you just look at the population growth and the poverty rates, it should be obvious that something is going to happen. The question is not if, but when.
KE:
) up to? No value judgements please, as you did with your post–just lay it out. Grazie.
Good, honest post. But I am keen to hear more re the Kalenjins as the “most dangerous” What are “they” (homogenous preferences
Perhaps it is time we went our separate ways then why chain yourself to people marching to a different tune in the name of the fake illusion kenya i concur when you say face reality because tribally its gasoline and matches, best kept apart. An internationally recognized census should be carried and partitioning occur accordingly. Think about it all successful nations are homogeneous s Korea japan the Nordics even the usa was at it’s pinnacle when a dominate caucasian group steered it look at what happened after they integrated outliers
Hadassah:
When I say the Kalenjins are dangerous it’s for two reasons:
1) They were in power for a long time under Moi and a small group of them were able to amass vast fortunes.
2)The culture and the evidence so far: Since the early 1990′s, they’ve been killing Kikuyu’s in the rift valley and they’ve been doing it with brutal efficiency.
Unlike Luo’s, Kalenjins have shown that they will not intellectualize the problem. If they have to fight and kill, they’ll do it and we saw it again in 07.
The question is, if it happens again in 2012, how will the Kikuyu’s respond? This is the danger.
KE,
Your views are very much like those of a Mr Ngatia on youtube
Mzeiya:
Who is Mr. Ngatia?
If thou couldst, doctor, cast
The water of my land, find her disease,
And purge it to a sound and pristine health,
I would applaud thee to the very echo,
That should applaud again.
Macbeth. ActV. Sc. 3. L. 50.
KE,
Check him out on youtube. His name is Mr Ngatia, and he resides in sweden. I started watching him like in 07, at first I’d dismissed him as somewhat fanatical, but later on I saw that he just has alot of passion for kenya. He has been in exile in sweden since 1982 and he has very relevant views about kenya, he speaks the unvarnished truth about kenya and it’s history..I recommend you check his channel out..
KE – finally read through a number of your contributions and they are insightful and frankly delight to read but leaning towards being a bit alarmist. First, let me copy here a comment I made to your excellent piece on failed states as it is also relevant to your insightful observations (which I still think tend to be more pessimistic than warranted):
“Kenya is not failed state but it could head there if politics continue to go in the wrong direction and the mass of unemployed/underemployed youth continues to grow. I am not certain that failed states need to have leaders driving civil war – such individuals exist in every country and they only need the right conditions (unstable political setting and large unemployed youth) to gain traction. On the other hand, Kenya is one of the black african countries in sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to transform itself – we saw it briefly during the NARC days climaxing in the 7%GDP growth rate. Kenyan people are hardworking with a well-educated and moderate middle class that could drive the transformation. On balance, I think recent developments actually demonstrate that Kenya could take the positive path to transformation. Parliament is getting stronger and providing an important check to the executive; institutions are becoming more independent; corruption, while still prevalent, is nowhere near where it was before and more cases are coming to light; despite all its flaws, the draft constitution is an improvement; the wobbly and much maligned coalition is still alive; and the economy has survived the post-election upheavals, global financial meltdown and is now showing signs of growth. Few countries in black Africa can match these characteristics – I am still cautiously optimistic about Kenya.”