The Implosion of The Illusion
I said here a year ago that the grand coalition “government” , which I termed the grand coalition illusion was never going to work.
I got a lot of flack for saying it because for some strange reason, people thought that this illusion would actually bring about peace. It hasn’t and it won’t.
I also said that the priority of the Kikuyu’s around Kibaki was going to be focused on re-aligning the security forces in the country, which essentially means, getting rid of the Kalenjins in the security forces that Moi had put in place during his 24 year reign.
Kibaki had started purging them during his first term and it did tick of many Kalenjins, but after the violence in the rift valley, they are even more determined to complete this exercise and to do it thoroughly. However, as I said last year, this complete purge will take a couple of years to come to fruition.
So, when I see Raila Odinga standing there and complaining that he doesn’t have enough power and then right next to him you see William Ruto, I just don’t see how this can work.
I also told you guys that 15 years ago, Michuki had identified what he believed was at the heart of the problem and he said that if they ever came into power, they were going to be at war with the Kalenjins and they weren’t going to let them back in to power.
What the violence in the rift valley did was simply increase their paranoia about the dangers of having people like William Ruto anywhere near the throngs of power.
Against this back drop of anger and extremism, I don’t see how these two sides will ever reach a middle ground.
As a Kenyan I absolutely fail to understand why the Kiux-Kalenjin-Luo pot cannot boil. I have spend close to a decade with all these fellows and seen them interract socially bila noma. Infact a good friend of mine, a kiuk, has a Luo best friend. Of course the obvious explanation is Pride and Jealousy. Lately I have come to realize the only explanation that makes sense is deep seated generational mistrust of a kind I witnessed with a neighbor. This neighbor readily divorced his wife of 25 years and abandoned their semi grown up kids after learning his daughter would not annul her wedding to a man from an unapproved tribe. With this in mind, the only hope for Kenya is a completely new crop of leaders.
it is shocking that people who supposedly are educated and can be able to run a blog are still stuck on race and tribal nonsense. kenya is only going to change when ordinary people free themselves from ethnic and tribals issues.kenya is a country of many people of different bakcgrounds. that is a good thing.. if you are happy about status quo then it is save to talk about petty issues that is going to divide the country and give an opening to bad leaders to exploit it. i gave kibaki a chance, i gave raila a chance, all the ministers and mps have had their chance. i am dissapointed even with my mp who is my neighbour. i am tired and i lost faith in all of them. mr ruto is a fraud, mr kosgei is a fraud, kibaki is a fraud, raila is a fraud, michuki is fraud, kenyatta is fake, kalonzo is hypocrite. kenyans should wake up and realise that the leaders we have are there to protect their riches and have no interest in helping the little guy. Give me a leader, somebody who wakes up in the morning and thinks about that poor little old lady in the country somewhere.give me a luo, kikuyu, turkana, luhya, kalenjin, teso, kisii give me something , somebody!. you will loose my respect if all that you talk about is kalenjin verses kikuyu. how is waring tribes going to help us? dead? . we need to evolve and not be stuck on things that will destroy a nation. let us talk about the issues and support all those that have a vision for change.
KE
What you said is not true.
What I know is that right now, Kenya will hold together. The nationalists or centrists if you want to call them so have the upper hand.
Kenya will remain one and united for many decades to come.
If you do not believe me, just wait and see.
KE
I just feel I have correct you on this one. I could not resist.
When you write the plural of something, you do not use the apostrophe. For instance, the plural of Kikuyu is “Kikuyus” and not “Kikuyu’s”.
I just had to……..
KeiO
KE does NOT say Kenya will cease to exist… KE is saying Kenya will exist but with Kikuyus “taming” especially the Kalenjins & other Kanyans.. That has been and is always KE’s message
In short Kikuyus MUST always “LEAD” by any means….
KE
Yes its breaking fast.
Mungatana just quit,…Anglo fleecing money officially identified & frozen in Switzerland
Lord:
I have not said that kikuyu’s must always lead. No. This is not what I am saying.
Let me start from the beginning:
I will always believe that had the election results occurred and had no violence broken out after that, Raila would have been able to convince the international community into pressuring Kibaki into a recount of the vote.
However, the violence that followed destroyed a very legitimate case that Raila had against the electoral commission. When the U.S. secretary of state for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer came to Kenya, she publicly concluded that the violence had been pre-planned and that it was geared towards one ethnic group. It was then that I knew that Raila had destroyed his case.
So, what I’m saying is Raila can blame Kibaki all day long for stealing the election. Fine. But he should also blame people like William Ruto and those other Kalenjins who decided to use violence against the Kikuyus in the rift valley because it came back to bite them in the butt.
I’ve said before that if I were to pick a president for Kenya it would be Anyang Nyongo and James Orengo would be my choice for attorney general. Neither of these men are Kikuyu’s.
But people like Kip above are still refusing to be honest about what the Kalenjins did in the rift valley– (actually, what they’ve been doing in the rift valley for last 15 years – which is killing Kikuyu’s).
The Kalenjins need to re-examine their anger and they need to stop the violence and until that happens Kibaki and the Kikuyu’s who surround him are going to hold onto power.
I don’t think Raila fully appreciates how the violence in the rift valley has hardened the people around Kibaki.
He keeps talking about democracy and how they had a gentelman’s agreement and blah, blah, blah…..but that is not what is driving the people around Kibaki. They are determined to control the guns and they are determined to do that now more than ever.
ke,
I still don’t understand why you say Nyongo and Orengo can be good President and attorney general.
By now and after sifting through all these posts you should realize that their is an institutional failure in Kenya.
When there is an institutional failure. Even a charismatic and good character politician cannot fix institutional(Systemic) failure.
Institutional failure can only be fixed when an enabling atmosphere is available
They basic atmosphere which is needed is
1- An awakened electorate THAT is a moral leader.
2- Rule of Law
3- Respect of property rights.
4- Enforced ethical standard and clear job description.
5- A culture of hardwork and patience.
6- Government official work ethic which forbids conflict of interest.
Among others.
Unfortunately, these things are lacking in Kenya. Its easy to break down a system. Its hard to build it back up.
Its unfortunate Kenya has to go through these problems. But I’m just one in a billion people living – What could I say that could improve Kenya.- NOTHING.
Sino Chinese (how many code names do you use on this blog?):
Forget about Nyongo and Orengo and institutions. This is no longer about democracy. It’s about power and in Africa, you hold onto power through the gun.
Kibaki cannot allow Raila and Ruto to control the guns after what happened in the rift valley.
Raila and Ruto can whine all they want, but what are they really going to do about it?
Raila is 65. He is too old to go the bush and fight. He tried it in 1982, failed and those days are over for him.
Ruto is a corrupt and spoilt buffoon. For all his bravado and talk, he also doesn’t have what it takes to overthrow the government violently. He is no Paul Kagame.
If you are familiar with Kagame’s history, you would know that it took him almost 20 years of real fighting before he finally took over that country. He fought with Museveni in the bush for almost 10 years, then spent years in the Virunga mountains with his men, enduring hours of bombardment by French helicopter gunships that were fighting to defend the genocidal regime in Rwanda. He put his life on the line for the cause. Who in ODM is willing to do that?
There is absolutely nothing in Ruto’s politically corrupt career that suggests that he has the fortitude to use this kind of violence to bring down Kibaki. Nothing.
Kenyan politicians love their luxuries. They’re not going to risk losing them.
Besides, Kibaki is very good at ignoring people. He’ll just keep napping and before everyone knows it, 2012 will be upon us, but by that time, the security agencies will have been “correctly” aligned.
KE
You have changed a lot in one year….and am looking forward to see how far you will go by NEXT year……
For the First time you have said something correct about Ruto (which we have always known). He is corrupt….He likes Money…End of Story…
Ruto
Ruto can work with any regime(including kikuyu regimes) that are corupt…where one can fleece out with impunity .. Ruto IS NOT seeking power he is seeking MONEY
His unease with Karua & Raila stems out from his fear of a reformed judicairy…? He has many cases pending…only being saved by CORUPT KIBAKI gov….
Such a profile (RUTO) does not fit a COMANDER of the pev Violence. Like i argued long ago Its the Kalenjin,Luos,Luhyas,Masai who attacked Kikuyus sponteneously….The riots where virtually over within 4 days……..
The Kalenjins are the problem NOT Ruto.
It was only Violent in RV because Kikuyus where more there..
Kikuyus do not exist in Rural Nyanza the way they exist among the kalenjins
Luhyas evicted over 30000 Kyuks who went to UG…I shudder to imagine if Kikuyus were as many in Nyanza as in RV
Ruto fears a reformed transparent goverment MORE than the Hauge.
KIBAKI & KALENJINS
What Kibaki is doing in the security apparatus got nothing to do with pev. He could have DONE even if there was no pev…He started dismising non Kikuyus from all key spheres (security & non security)….Its simply a tribal thing…giving jobs to the home boys….and this will happen again when a NON Kikuyu takes over but in reverse order of dismisals
Kibaki & his Chronies are much MORE like RUTO than RAILA & MARTHA….They LIKE MONEY
Believe me or NOT the security of Rv Kikuyus will always be in the hands of Kalenjins..(they live among them)..Its a fact…
The same way the security of Nairobians depends on the Number of thugs in the city
KE: I like that you are downright honest (??) and call issues as you see them. However, I miss your logic at one point: OK, this is Kenya, indeed let’s call it Africa .You seem to praise Kagame for his violent claim to power and insinuate that that’s the only way Raila and/or Ruto can get power in Kenya? What then makes killing Kikuyus in the Rift Valley for the last 15 years wrong if that’s the only sure way to power? If they ‘must lead’ (which Kikuyus do you soeak for?)why wouldn’t anyone go the Genocide way?
I meant what Kikuyus do you speak for, anyway?
PKW
I don’t think KE really understands political formations as yet. The resignation of Karua and Mungatana will not change anything at all. Even ODM’s withdrawal from the coalition will not change anything.
KE is right though in saying that ODM burnt their bridges in the 2007 PEV. They lost the moral high ground which they had previously unfairly occupied. As they say, a leopard cannot hide its spots. ODM is not and will never be the viable alternative it had projected itself to be. Its ugly side has been exposed for all to see.
As for Anyang Nyong, it has been said that he is the chief architect of ODM’s strategy of demonising Kikuyus. It backfired spectacularly and it will still backfire in the future.
As for Orengo, I think he is like Karua and he should also resign from ODM.
Right now, any attempt at violence will be ruthlessly crushed – and rightly so.
ONE KENYA FOR ALL.
ke,
I don’t think Kibaki would be that stupid to Ignore Raila and his faction.
Kibaki is losing support every passing day. Raila is still relevant. I still believe he’s the people’s president.
I can bet money. Raila will be the next president. Why ?
Even if Raila is old. He still has to run for presidency. I know this because, he started his quest pretty early when nobody believed he would do anything.
If Uhuru Kenyatta runs he will be beaten hands down with Raila. Why, Is because nobody want him there since he not a reformer and his dad was not either.
I see a re alignment of forces. Kalonzo wants to be president. Will he join Uhuru ?
Kalonzo will break away from Uhuru also because Uhuru wants to be president too.
You see, there has to be a re alignment and I see Raila passing all the re alignment tests and coming through a much stronger candidate than he is now.
Ruto is going to lose his seat this coming elections. I think I’m the first one to predict this but , Ruto is no more come this next election.
Uhuru = Mt Kenya Votes
Kalonzo Votes = Decisive Factor
Mt Kenya Votes + Kalonzo Votes = President
Anybody with better math?
PKW: You seem to praise Kagame for his violent claim to power and insinuate that that’s the only way Raila and/or Ruto can get power in Kenya?
What other way is there for them to get power? They tried elections and that didn’t work. So, now what?
I’m not really praising Kagame in totality. I am saying that he realized that violence was the only way for him to remove that regime and fix the country and if I am praising him it is because he was willing to put his own life on the line to do it. He was not like Ruto and the others who were hiding in their mansions while people suffered.
Lord:
I think Ruto’s ego is so outsized that he wants both money and power. Kibaki is letting him get the money, but he won’t let him get the power.
At least Raila did put his money where his mouth was and tried to fight in ’82, but he learnt his lesson when that coup attempt failed.
Ruto’s bravado is going to catch up with him one day. I keep telling you guys to read Kagame’s book.
Anyway, in two weeks everyone will go back to drinking their beers, eating their nyama choma and enjoying Nairobi’s beautiful sunshine.
I think that’s why Kenyans are such relaxed people. It’s the weather. It’s cool and temperate, like her people.
KeIo
Kenyatta +Kalonzo /= President..
You have not told us the candidate,will it be Kenyatta or Kalonzo? So your math does not ADD up….
1) if Kenyatta is candidate Kalonzo will go to Raila instantly.
2) if Kalonzo is Candidate …..luck of money….traitor….spinelessnes will mar him leading to Railas victory
3) There is saitoti,Karua too to throw spanners each ever way….Raila is Beneficiary.
**Do not forget that even now Kalonzo ODM-K got only 5 out 16 mps loyal to Kalonzo….12 kamba mps are in Railas camp…
KE
65 yrs is very young…you forget Kibaki is 80….
You can make an excelent analyst if you tinge some orange on your blue spectacles.
Ruto
Your thesis was Ruto is the mastermind,power behind the clashes….so why is he given money by Kibaki regime ? instead of jail. (after all they have fixed the army)
Only one answer..Kibaki,Ruto are cut out of same clothe ,AVARICE.
COUP DETAT
Dont you think an officer in the army can take power even NOW…..This is a very likely scenario GIVEN LUCK of trust in the ECK./gov. The army man only needs to say he wants to
1) stop looting
2) Make the constitution
3) Hand over to civilians within 2 yrs
The whole world will surppot……
KE…think of Kianga ? or some Akamba General if Kalonzo is NOT made a presidential candidate…
I get KeiO’s logic: with Uhuru+Kalonzo, there’ll be no need to steal the election, even if Raila+Ruto are an item. It’s still gona be all about tribe with Mt. Kenya folks, and about realignment of the same ol’ guards with the rest, and new words to the voters. Probably a new party or parties.
But shouldn’t be time for some new people already?! {swears in her heart}
Lord: 65 yrs is very young…you forget Kibaki is 80….
You can make an excelent analyst if you tinge some orange on your blue spectacles.
I”m thinking that after this debacle with Kibaki, people really, really, want a younger person. Do you want another 70 year old in 2012?
Kibaki will be dead in a couple of month, he is the main problem..not the Kikuyu’s..the’re good people
Lord,
Again, I agree with your views. I think you are one of the few people who i would like to sit and chat with in terms of Kenyan politics so far in this forum.
Your views a very simple and advisable. From your reply It shows you have a good understanding of Kenyan political realities. You see the problem as they are and advise accordingly. My chagrin with many of my fellow Kenyans in the Diaspora is they think they can micro manage Kenyan politics. I’m sorry to say that Kenyans know what is good for them. There is a vacuum of leadership in Kenya- and the available politicians have flunked the tests of leadership. Most Kenyans know this.
Anybody who Ignores what happened in the last elections and what the electorate did are forgetting that the real power lies with the people and not persons you see on tv and hear on radio.
Come next referendum or election. the world will see this again. Kenyans are slowly asserting themselves looking for an better leader- The events of 2002 election to now show this trend. Most Kenyans don’t want any recycled garbage and old ideas.
You better believe this ke. Thats why I don’t agree with many of the quote’s you made here…
“Kibaki cannot allow Raila and Ruto to control the guns after what happened in the rift valley.”
This is not Kibaki’s or Raila’s or Ruto’s or Karua’s or Saitoti’s or Kalonzo’s or Kenyatta’s- Story….
This is a story for the Kenyan people to write… Whether this story becomes a bestseller depends on the electorate not on some politicians. Many politicians come and go but the the electorate will still be here..
I don’t know why you are hell bent on personalities… ? The Orengo’s, Nyon’go’s, etc.
Don’t you think the people have the power to get rid of these persons or are you Implying that Kenyan’s don’t see through the actions of current crop of politicians…. Because either way the past two elections showed us otherwise.
@Sino Chinese
Thank you very much for the kind words. You will make my Easter.. Am actually after this headed somewhere where we shall discus with some friends “how far we have have before a meltdown ……..
I actually fear for this country…..The mediocrity is immense,the division between principal nationalities is vast……
WHY THE DIFFERENCE
Granted Kenyan is composed of different nationalities (kikuyu,Luhya,Luhya,Kalenjin,Kamba) . The differences arises out of the inequtable distribution of say the CAKE
CAKE
The cake in Kenya is nothing but the Goverment. The Goverment of Kenya is a Central Governtmen as oppsed to Federal
Because its cetralised the community which produces the leader will have dispropotionate cake in goverment tenders,jobs,largeese etc
This inequities drives other nationalities to seek power….
We can observe that competion is getting worse and violent as time moves on and global warming & other crises feed in. The awareness coming out off education and travel have awoken the sleeping nationalities to come claim their place on the table………..
FEDERALISM
Federalism is an arrangement where this rush for CAKE is STOPED by creating multiple centres of CAKES…therefore breaking this dangerous coalitions . For Example if western province were to get say 30 B Kes per year to run their affairs…..Development would increase 1000 times in Western than now where the gov only remitance is
1) salaries to teachers,(not more than 10000)…(this aleiviates poverty as most teachers are residence
2) Hopitals & Hospital payroll….
30B bill to Western with a western province Assembly of elected officails will DO miracles
EFFECTS of FEDERALISM
Rush by busineessmen to various Jimbo capiatls. Rush of Investments,(housing)….Emergence of 10 Cities (real cities).
Nairobi would shrink by 70% taking down with it all the slums…..
The landlords will COMIT sucide though (small price to pay) for the general,genuine spread of wealth.
OBSERVATIONS
All those who benefit from current governace (Central goverment) oppose Majimbo saying people will be ejected from Non indgeneous Jimbos….(as if its not happening already without majimbo)
What they really fear and do not say is the rise of biz men from all jimbos and the melt down of Nairobi population bringing in ZERO rent and market.
@Sino Chinese
Am seeing a bloger syaing people should create CAKE before eationg cake…Do not worry about that because that clasic chicken n egg story…
….you need cake to create cake my friend.
Ruto
I observed you conjured will loose election …..
Yoo GOT a point
Censure motion
Ruto emerged from censure motion completely triuphant & into the clouds.
He figured out that it will be hard in the future to steal with all thise REFORMS mumbo jumbo comming from Raila,Karua….
Steps
Rushed to rift valley,assemblm tribesmen,told them the way forward is KK (kalenjin kikuyu)…of course here you steal with impunity
Iten ,Keiyo District
Kalenjins meet Raila & Ruto.
Ruto is shocked Kalenjins are NOT following him…very many nasty words from people aginst Ruto about KK…
Raila is shocked Kalenjins still like him….
Ruto is shell shocked he si not the LEADER of the Kalenjin but a follower of the kalenjin….
If he follows the Kalenjins he be re elected
…but have you noticed of late the Boy is NO longer arrogant as before…….
I’m Kenyan Luo, who have schooled with Kikuyu’s in the USA & in Kenya, i have never had a problem with them, even my mum..a traditional luo women..will tell deep in her heart..central people are not that evil as most people think, i have also invested with my central brothers in Kenya..Raila & Kibaki are just two selfish man.